Why the 49ers will meet the Eagles in the Divisional Round

In this game, there are multiple injuries at key spots. However, the Eagles remain the superior team.

We’ve limited our search for who the San Francisco 49ers will prepare for in the Divisional Round playoffs a week from now to two teams. On Sunday, we expect the favorites to win. Dallas will be too much for Green Bay to handle, while the Rams will be unable to handle the Lions.

That takes us to Monday, when the winner of the Philadelphia Eagles-Tampa Bay Buccaneers game will receive a ticket to Santa Clara if both home teams win on Sunday.

The Wild Card slate’s final game is the most surprising. What have we seen from this Eagles team that hobbled into the playoffs in the second half?

They needed a Mike McCarthy and Dak Prescott implosion in the fourth quarter to win in Dallas—a Marquez Valdez-Scantling touchdown on Monday Night Football to depart Arrowhead with a win.

Buffalo drove the ball up and down the field, even taking the lead with less than two minutes remaining, but lost in overtime 37-34 the following week.

Since being humbled at home by the 49ers, the Eagles have lost five of their previous six games, three of which have been against weaker opponents. They appear dead and unprepared.

This year, we all watched the NFC South. The Buccaneers failed to score a touchdown against the Carolina Panthers. The previous week, they battled to get to 13 points at home against the Saints. The Buccaneers were on a four-game winning streak before to Week 17, but those victories came against C.J. Beathard, Jordan Love, Desmond Ridder, and Bryce Young.

This is a coin toss game.

Why the 49ers will face the Buccaneers

These are, in my opinion, the two worst teams in the NFC playoffs. Injuries play a significant role. If the Eagles and Buccaneers were playing anyone else, they would most likely lose. But they’re competing against each other, so someone has to win.

Who could have expected Matt Patricia’s failure as a defensive coordinator? The Eagles allowed 27 points to Tyrod Taylor, 31 to Kyler Murray, and 25 — lucky it wasn’t more — to the Giants two weeks ago. According to their game logs, teams score early and frequently against Philadelphia. They are unable to tackle or cover.

Before the season’s last two weeks, Tampa Bay scored 29 points in three straight games. They appeared to be on track to make a postseason run in the NFC and pull off a couple of upsets. Baker Mayfield was completing passes, and Tampa Bay had figured out how to use Rachaad White out of the backfield.

The Eagles rank 29th in defensive DVOA, owing primarily to their ranking against the pass. There are clips on the internet that show a five-yard reception being converted into a 20-yard catch and run. It’s not good.

If the Bucs can generate enough stops, they can pull off the upset. And the Eagles offense has looked out of sorts for a few weeks. Injuries to Philadelphia’s key players only benefit the home team.

Why the 49ers won’t face the Buccaneers

Todd Bowles’ defensive style is to fill the box — Tampa Bay has the fifth-most guys in the box in the NFL — and be aggressive while playing 1-on-1 coverage on the outside.

In Week 3, D’Andre Swift rushed for 130 yards on only 16 tries, while Philadelphia rushed for 201 yards and gashed the Bucs on the ground. When that happens, athletes like A.J. Brown are forced to compete one-on-one, and he wins. Brown hauled in nine passes for 131 yards.

Last week, the Panthers failed to score when wide receiver D.J. Chark mishandled the ball while diving into the end zone, resulting in a touchback. A lengthy touchdown run by Carolina was also called back because a receiver did not line up on the line of scrimmage. They also failed to convert a field goal and fumbled in Buccaneer territory.

Jalen Hurts and Antonio Brown aren’t 100 percent, and we’re almost certain to see a reduction in their output. Add in DeVonta Smith’s uncertainty, and there’s something to be concerned about.

Baker Mayfield, on the other hand, was limping around the field the entire game. He was immobile. Mayfield has tight ribs, which have hampered some of his throws, and he suffered an ankle injury during the game, which has limited his movement.

For as bad as the Eagles have been over the last month and a half — and there’s no sugar coating it, they’ve been dreadful — a hampered Mayfield who can’t move or make you pay for coverage mistakes isn’t the quarterback to beat the Eagles, especially this version of them.

The Eagles have given us no reason to have faith in them. However, this is a sport based on matchups. Hurts, Brown, and Smith thrive in Bowles’ defense, which operates with a single-high safety. Hurts becomes a more dangerous runner, and Swift only needs to make one person miss for an explosive run.

Consider the opponents that Tampa Bay faced throughout the second half of their winning streak. Tampa Bay’s defense has been in the bottom half of the league in terms of EPA per play and success rate since Week 9. They are failing to get stops against non-playoff clubs.

Since Week 9, Philadelphia has ranked seventh in EPA per play. They can still use the big play to make you pay. Despite their flaws in the second half, their offensive ranks sixth in the NFL in terms of success rate, indicating that they can still move the ball on a down-by-down basis.

In a game where it comes down to who wins 1-on-1, I’ll go with the team that played murderer’s row in the second half.