There is little separating the Championship’s top four teams, all of which are keeping up the pace in the promotion chase.
Leeds United, Leicester City, Ipswich Town, and Southampton all aim for a top-two finish, but who will make it to the Premier League? Alex Jones analyzes the stats behind the battle.
Leeds United
Despite being top of the standings, Leeds are 15/8 outsiders (via Sky Bet) to win the league title. That being said, their individual quality is perhaps the best in the division.
The front four of Georginio Rutter, Dan James, Crysencio Summerville, and Joel Piroe have scored 44 goals this season, surpassing the total of nine Championship teams, including Cardiff City and Bristol City.
This isn’t simply luck. Summerville, Piroe, and Rutter are among the league’s top projected goal scorers [xG]. Rutter, in fact, is underperforming his attacking figures, scoring six goals with an xG of 11.4.
It demonstrates that his total should be greater than it is, which is not surprising given that he has missed 15 major opportunities (situations in which a player would fairly be expected to score, such as a one-on-one scenario or a shot from point-blank range) this season. Only Southampton’s Adam Armstrong (21) and Coventry’s Haji Wright (16) have been more wasteful in front of the net.
That’s remarkable given that he has 15 assists, the most in the division. Although Summerville has more opportunities generated (shots that result in goals), Rutter has 22 big chances, six more than the Dutch winger and second most in the league.
This is not to argue that Leeds are solely a team of individuals, and their aggregate metrics should highlight their defense, which has been dominant since the beginning of the calendar year. They’ve only conceded three league goals in that period, and all of them have come from set pieces.
The loss of Pascal Struijk to injury has hampered their ability to defend balls into the box, but Ethan Ampadu’s transfer to centre-back has done wonders so far. Daniel Farke’s side has conceded the fewest goals per game in the second division (0.7) and the lowest anticipated goals against (xGA, 1.0).
There are no clear statistics to suggest that they will fade away. In fact, they have 11 more points than they did after 38 games of their title-winning season under Marcelo Bielsa in 2019/20, and we all know how good that club was.
Their home record will also be important. They’re unbeaten at Elland Road this season, and their 1-1 draw with Coventry City is the first league game they haven’t won in LS11 since September 20.
Leicester City
Ah, Leicester. What exactly went wrong? The Foxes have 65 points from their first 26 games, putting them 10 points clear at the top and 17 ahead of Leeds. Now they’re wondering if they’ll have to compete for a top-two finish.
Although they still have a game in hand, it is unlikely that they will surpass Reading’s record of 105 points. That is not to suggest they aren’t a very excellent team.
Enzo Maresca’s men are second in the league in open-play xG, having scored more than 22 of the other 23 clubs. Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has ten goals and twelve assists, while Stephy Mavididi has ten goals, albeit his form has dipped in recent weeks.
Dewsbury-Hall’s xG this season is 10.61, whereas Mavididi’s is 10.8, indicating that neither is overperforming in the final third. Jamie Vardy, for example, has 13 goals with an xG of 10.92.
Vardy is a very intriguing situation. His ancestry and quality are evident to all. He scores 0.95 goals per 90 minutes, which is significantly more than everyone else in the league. These numbers are based on just 26 appearances, 13 of which were starts. He also leads the league in combined anticipated goals and assists [xG and xA], with 0.83.
Nonetheless, four of his goals have come from the penalty spot, and a recent run of excellent form has significantly increased his total. He’s struggled to keep it going, partly owing to injuries.
It also helps that he’s paired with the league’s finest creator of big chances, Abdul Fatawu. So far, the on-loan Sporting CP winger has 25, more than Rutter, Dewsbury-Hall, and Summerville put together.
One intriguing feature of Leicester’s style is their pressing, which appeared to be quite aggressive in their previous two games against Ipswich. However, their PPDA (passes per defensive action) is the lowest of the four teams, placing them below Stoke City, who have clearly modified their strategy under Steven Schumacher. Perhaps Maresca’s very low intensity is why he has received so much criticism for his playing style?
Ipswich Town
Ipswich, although being outside the top two, are still fighting for automatic promotion as 10/1 outsiders (via Sky Bet).
They have scored the most goals in the division (80) and are regarded as one of England’s most entertaining teams. They also have the second-best home record after Leeds. Surprisingly, Leicester and Southampton are fifth and sixth in that regard, below West Brom and Norwich City.
With only one league defeat at Portman Road this season, perhaps their away form is the issue? Well, no. Leicester have the best road record, although Town have collected the same number of points as Southampton and outperformed Leeds. While they aren’t as deadly in front of goal, they’ve allowed only 20 goals in 19 games away from Suffolk.
The Blues’ defense line deserves a lot of credit for it, and Vaclav Hladky’s shot-stopping ability is noteworthy. It’s also worth noting Cameron Burgess, who has won 71.1% of his 218 Championship duels this season, the highest rate of any player (according to Opta figures).
Going forward, nobody sticks out statistically, but that’s because Ipswich distributed goals fairly among the team. In terms of creativity, Leif Davis clearly leads the way with 14 assists, one shy from surpassing the Championship’s full-back record.
He has also created 98 opportunities, which is more than Dewsbury-Hall and Rutter. Interestingly, Huddersfield Town’s Sorba Thomas leads the league in this aspect.
Town’s PPDA is the third lowest in the division, indicating that they use a high press, but the intensity with which they break when they win the ball back is incredible, with the most shot-ending high turnovers in the second tier (65).
Fans are simply enjoying the journey, and why not? Ipswich scored only 31 points in their last Championship season. They presently have 81 points, which is 57 more than they had at this stage in 2018/19 and 17 more than when they made the play-offs in 2014/15.
Southampton
Some are questioning Southampton’s commitment to the promotion fight, and they are currently rated at 13/2 (via Sky Bet) to return to the top two. However, if they win against Ipswich on April 1st and then beat Leicester and Preston North End in their two games in hand, the situation might change dramatically.
A tight run-in complicates matters, but it also provides an opportunity to harm their promotion opponents. In their remaining ten games, they must play all three of the league’s top teams.
Their 22-match unbeaten streak from earlier this season comes to mind. They did not lose a single game between September 23rd and February 13th, tying for the fourth-longest streak in Championship history with Reading (33 in 2005/06), Burnley (25 in 2015/16), and Fulham (23 in 2017/18).
What could we attribute that to? They have the league’s most fierce press and lowest PPDA, as well as the greatest average possession (66.7%). Russell Martin’s style attempts to integrate elements of Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola, however this can be tough to accomplish in the Championship. The Saints took a while to adjust to this.
Armstrong has taken to it like a duck to water, with 18 goals and 11 assists, giving him the most goal contributions of any player in the league. He leads the league in both xG and expected goals on target [xGOT], which is a more precise metric for determining a player’s clinical ability.
Isn’t that odd, especially given his previous wasted opportunities? It demonstrates that he has the potential to achieve far more than he now does.That’s a terrifying prospect for the rest of the league.
Like Vardy, he benefits from having the right teammates around him. Ryan Fraser has the Championship’s highest xA, while Kamaldeen Sulemana leads in successful dribbles per 90. They are the ones who move the ball into the final third.
However, none of this works without on-loan West Ham midfielder Flynn Downes, who must be the team’s deep-lying midfielder in order for Martin’s style to function. His absence ended their long unbeaten streak, and he also missed defeats against Hull City and Millwall. They need to keep him fit if they want to compete for automatic promotion.
