What do the stats tell us about the Alabama-Michigan matchup?

What do the numbers tell us about the Crimson Tide and Wolverines and their upcoming matchup on New Year’s Day? Here’s what we found:

TEAM STATS

Michigan’s offense ranks 14th in scoring, 36.7 points per game, but is largely middle-of-the-pack everywhere else: 68th in total offense (380.5 yards per game), 60th in rushing (161.77), 75th in passing (218.8). They’ve faced five top-20 defenses, including three of the top five, in No. 1 Penn State, No. 3 Ohio State, and No. 5 Iowa.

Alabama ranks 18th in total defense (313.3 yards allowed per game), 17th in scoring defense (18.4), 32nd in rushing defense (124.54) and 23rd in passing (188.8). They’re a battle-tested group, with six games against Top-20 offenses, including three in the top 10: No. 1 LSU, No. 8 Georgia, and No. 9 Texas.

The Crimson Tide offense has made strides all year, and jumped to 19th nationally in scoring, at 35.1 points per game. They’re also 54th in total offense (401.2 yards per game), 49th in rushing (172.69), and 61st in passing (228.5). They played two top-10 defenses, in No. 9 Texas A&M and No. 10 Georgia, and four others in the top-50.

Michigan’s defense is, statistically, one of the best in the country: No. 2 in total defense (239.2 yards allowed per game) and No. 1 in scoring (9.5 points allowed per game). The Wolverines have allowed 14 touchdowns in 13 games this season, but eight of their 13 games this year have been against teams that rank 100th or worse in total offense.

What does this all tell us?

Michigan’s defense has looked very good against a lot of bad offenses. The best offense they played this year was Ohio State, at No. 37 in total offense. The Wolverines held the Buckeyes to below their season averages in both total yards and points scored. They posted two shutouts and held eight of 13 opponents to single digits.

This defense will be, on paper, the best Alabama’s seen this season, but Jalen Milroe will be the best and most versatile quarterback Michigan’s had to defend all year. Milroe ranks fourth nationally in passer rating, at 177.48, with 3,448 total yards of offense — 2,718 passing, 730 rushing — and 35 total touchdowns

On the flip side, Michigan’s offense has continued to score despite facing brick walls week after week. It’s a well-rounded unit that likes to run the ball, and Blake Corum leads the nation with 24 rushing touchdowns. J.J. McCarthy has some dual-threat ability, too, and boasts a passer rating 170.26, sixth-best nationally.

Alabama’s defense, however, has been excellent at stopping the run, and if they force McCarthy to drop back and pass, he’ll do so against one of the best pass rushes in the country and will be throwing at one of the best defensive backfields in America. The Crimson Tide defense has played better offenses than Michigan this season.

Here are some other interesting stats ahead of the Alabama-Michigan game:

QUARTERBACK COMPARISON

Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy

• 2,630 passing yards, 74.2% completion, 19 touchdowns, 4 interceptions
• 295 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns

Alabama’s Jalen Milroe

• 2,718 passing yards, 65.5% completion, 23 touchdowns, 6 interceptions
• 730 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns

SKILL GUY COMPARISON

Michigan Running Backs

• Blake Corum, 1,028 rushing yards, 24 touchdowns
• Donovan Edwards, 382 rushing yards, 3 touchdowns, 30 catches for 249 yards

Michigan Wide Receivers

• Roman Wilson, 41 catches for 661 yards and 11 touchdowns
• Cornelius Johnson, 42 catches for 567 yards and 1 touchdown

Michigan Tight Ends

• Colston Loveland, 40 catches for 572 yards and 4 touchdowns
• AJ Barner, 22 catches for 249 yards and 1 touchdown

Alabama Running Backs

• Jase McClellan, 803 rushing yards, 6 touchdowns
• Roydell Williams, 561 rushing yards, 6 total touchdowns

Alabama Wide Receivers

• Jermaine Burton, 35 catches for 777 yards and 8 touchdowns
• Isaiah Bond, 44 catches for 621 yards and 4 touchdowns

Alabama Tight Ends

• Amari Niblack, 19 catches for 231 yards and 4 touchdowns
• CJ Dippre, 9 catches for 172 yards

DEFENSIVE PLAYMAKERS

Michigan

• Jaylen Harrell, EDGE — 6.5 sacks, 8 tackles for loss, 27 pressures
• Junior Colson, linebacker — 79 total tackles, 2 tackles for loss, 10 pressures, 2 pass breakups
• Mike Sainristil, defensive back — 5 interceptions, 2 pick-sixes, 6 pass breakups, 30 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, 2 sacks

Alabama

• Dallas Turner, EDGE — 9 sacks, 13.5 tackles for loss, 52 pressures
• Jihaad Campbell, linebacker — 65 tackles, 4 tackles for loss, half-sack, 11 pressures, interception, pass breakup, fumble recovery for a touchdown
• Terrion Arnold, defensive back — 5 interceptions, 11 pass breakups, 61 tackles, 6.5 tackles for loss, sack

MISCELLANEOUS STATS

3rd-Down Conversions

• Michigan: 46.71% (71-of-152)
• Alabama: 46.75% (79-of-169)

4th-Down Conversions

• Michigan: 78.95% (15-of-19)
• Alabama: 83.33% (5-of-6)

Turnover Margin

• Michigan: +17 — +10 in last four games: +1 vs. Penn State, +2 vs. Maryland, +2 vs. Ohio State, +3 vs. Iowa. Had four turnovers vs. Bowling Green, and just three turnovers combined in other 12 games. They have forced 13 fumbles this season.
• Alabama: +8 — +5 in last three games: +1 vs. Chattanooga, +3 vs. Auburn, +1 vs. Georgia. Has turned the ball over just twice in last five games.

Red Zone Numbers

Michigan has the third-best red zone defense in the country. They’ve allowed teams to enter the red zone just 21 times this season, second-fewest nationally. Only 15 trips resulted in points, 9 touchdowns, 6 field goals. Alabama has the seventh-best red zone offense nationally, converting 47-of-50 trips into points: 35 touchdowns, 12 field goals.

Time Of Possession

Michigan’s average time-of-possession per game is 32:48.92, 11th-best nationally. When the Wolverines run the ball efficiently, they eat clock. Against Penn State, for example, Michigan ran the ball 32 consecutive times en route to a 24-15 win. Alabama’s average time-of-possession is 30:36.62, more than two full minutes less.

Penalties

Michigan is the least-penalized team in the country, at just 2.9 penalties per game. They’ve been flagged just 38 times in 13 games this season. Alabama, on the other hand, averages 5.8 penalties per game. They’ve been flagged 75 times total this season, and eight of those have wiped away touchdowns.