Trading Destination: A Look Back at Minnesota Twins Challenge Trades

admin | November 26, 2023 | Other Clubs | No Comments

Mid-market teams that want to be competitive in the MLB summer must be creative.

The Twins have a history of exchanging big leaguers for big leaguers with other teams, but has it worked? Let us look to history for a solution.

No team wins every deal, but to be competitive, they must win more than they lose. When a team moves MLB players from a position of strength to bring in other MLB contributors from a position of need, it’s quite easy to distinguish winners and losers. These are known as challenge trades, and the Twins have made them a habit over the tenure of this front office.

I challenge you (no pun intended) to think of an offseason trade since 2016 that sent away an MLB player for the Twins.

You just thought of a difficult trade if that trade wasn’t Gio Urshela for Alejandro Hidalgo. The only time the Twins genuinely sold—that is, dealt an MLB player for a prospect—was during the second Urshela trade. Under Derek Falvey, I’ve documented every deal that may be deemed an offseason challenge trade (or sale).

Before we begin, let’s do some housekeeping. I supplied statistics for each player’s new team. If a player was transferred or signed somewhere as a free agent after the original deal, their performance is not included. This analysis does not predict future performance. This data is current as of November 15th, 2023. Those marked with a * indicate that the player is still with the organization to whom they were dealt, hence the full picture isn’t available.

I’ll also give some context for each exchange. Because comparing data does not always reveal which team won the deal, I have attempted to explain why the trade occurred.

For an example of why comparing statistics isn’t optimal, consider the Yankees trade below. Although the Twins lost the deal by WAR, it cleared Josh Donaldson’s payroll and allowed them to sign Carlos Correa to his first Minnesota contract.

Without further ado, my subjective order is from best to worst.

3/13/22: Minnesota acquires Gio Urshela (551 PA, 119 OPS+, 3.1 bWAR), Gary Sanchez (471 PA, 88 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Josh Donaldson (666 PA, 90 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (892 PA, 81 OPS+, 2.9 bWAR), Ben Rortvedt* (79 PA, 28 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), -1.0 bWAR for Minnesota.

There’s a lot to parse in this transaction, which was essentially structured to free salary cap space from 2022 to 2024 and get rid of Donaldson. Donaldson was a valuable contributor for the Yankees in 2022, but he outstayed his welcome, and he was released before the end of 2023. Kiner-Falefa also lost his starting shortstop position, becoming a super-utility player when his contract expired in 2023.

Injuries have limited Rortvedt’s playing time in New York. Urshela and Sanchez each spent a year in Minnesota before returning in 2023. Despite the fact that both Urshela and Sanchez had contracts that offset some of Donaldson’s, the Twins are no longer paying either, and the extra money helped bring in Correa before 2022 and 2023.

1/20/23: Minnesota acquires Pablo López* (194 IP, 117 ERA+, 3.3 bWAR), Jose Salas* (has not reached Minnesota), Byron Churio* (has not reached Minnesota) from Miami for Luis Arraez* (617 PA, 133 OPS+, 4.9 bWAR), -1.6 bWAR for Minnesota.

Following the transaction that sent reigning batting champion Arraez to Miami, the Twins named López as their Opening Day starter. López finished seventh in the AL Cy Young voting after four strong starts and a four-year, $73 million contract extension. Churio and Salas were both bright prospects who were not expected to be included in the deal, though it’s unclear whether either will make it to the big leagues. Arraez earned his second straight hitting title and finished sixth in the voting for the 2023 NL MVP. He’ll be under team management in Miami until 2025.

2/9/20: Minnesota acquires Kenta Maeda (277.1 IP, 106 ERA+, 3.0 bWAR), Jair Camargo* (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (NL) for Brusdar Graterol* (173.2 IP, 158 ERA+, 3.5 bWAR), Luke Raley (72 PA, 43 OPS+, -0.5 bWAR), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota.

Maeda finished second in the 2020 Olympics. Despite receiving Cy Young votes during the truncated season, he struggled in 2021, underwent Tommy John surgery, and re-established himself in 2023, though not without ongoing injury worries. The Twins were aware of his elbow troubles at the time of the transaction. When healthy, Graterol has been a reliable presence in the Los Angeles bullpen. Camargo has yet to reach the majors, and the Twins dealt Raley to the Rays. This transaction also included a second-round pick for Los Angeles.

4/7/22: Minnesota acquires Chris Paddack* (27.1 IP, 95 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR), Emilio Pagán (132.1 IP, 112 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR), Brayan Medina (has not reached Minnesota) from San Diego for Taylor Rogers (41.1 IP, 87 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR), Brent Rooker (7 PA, -100 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), +1.1 bWAR for Minnesota.

Rogers, the Twins’ top reliever, was shipped to San Diego in this notorious deal. Rooker, a depth outfielder, only appeared in seven games for the Padres but was named a 2023 All-Star by Oakland.

In exchange, the team obtained Paddack, who had known elbow concerns and threw well in five starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He returned to the bullpen late in 2023 and will most likely begin 2024 in the starting rotation. Pagán struggled as a high-leverage reliever through 2022, but he had a sub-3.00 ERA and led the bullpen in innings in 2023. Medina is currently a starter in Rookie ball, and the Twins kept the majority of Rogers’ money.

3/12/22: Minnesota acquires Isiah Kiner-Falefa (did not reach Minnesota), Ronny Henriquez (11.2 IP, 173 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR) from Texas for Mitch Garver (559 PA, 121 OPS+, 2.5 bWAR), -2.7 bWAR for Minnesota.

Coming out of the lockout, Minnesota executed a deal that hit two birds with one stone: they secured a return for the injured Garver while also filling a vacancy at shortstop. Garver has suffered with injuries in Texas but has continued to hit well despite being limited to DH duties. Kiner-Falefa was a Twin for one day before being traded, and Henriquez pitched a few innings in 2022 before being released by the Twins following the 2023 season.

11/18/22: Minnesota acquires Alejandro Hidalgo (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (AL) for Gio Urshela (130 PA, 84 OPS+, 0.2 bWAR), -0.2 bWAR for Minnesota.

During his year in Minnesota, Urshela became a fan favorite and a reliable performer. He would, however, have been non-tendered in arbitration to avoid a perceived logjam in the Minnesota infield. He played all over the infield for the Angels and was somewhat productive before a broken pelvis terminated his season. Hidalgo is still a 20-year-old starter in High-A.

2/5/21: Minnesota acquires Shaun Anderson (8.2 IP, 47 ERA+, -0.5 bWAR) from San Francisco for LaMonte Wade Jr.* (1151 PA, 112 OPS+, 3.9 bWAR), -4.4 bWAR for Minnesota.

In retrospect, this was an unintentional error. The Twins had two similar alternatives for their fourth outfielder heading into 2021, Wade and Jake Cave, and they chose to trade Wade, who has been a steady presence in the Giants lineup when healthy. Cave struggled in his final two years in Minnesota, and Anderson, the AAAA lottery ticket they obtained for Wade, was out before the end of the year.

Total WAR gained: -8.8 bWAR

Unfortunately, by WAR, the Twins have given up more than they’ve brought in in MLB-for-MLB trades. However, there’s room for discussion. The team could say that they’d do the Donaldson, Arraez, and Graterol trades, even though they have not shown favorably by WAR, given the context of the trades. I said at the beginning that it’s easy to see who wins and loses, but it’s a little trickier to contextualize them.

Tags:Minnesota Twins