The Seahawks risk becoming mediocre and should look for a future quarterback
I wrote a month ago, as the Seattle Seahawks prepared to meet the Los Angeles Rams, that this five-game span might be instructive as they chart the course of the franchise for the next two seasons.
Unfortunately, the Seahawks’ first four-game losing skid under Pete Carroll has made it painfully evident that big moves must be taken this offseason if they are to avoid descending into the abyss of mediocrity.
Being mediocre is the most aggravating position in the NFL. It’s an existential choice between embracing the painful process of roster turnover in order to acquire high draft picks and a plethora of cheaper players in order to build a contender, or staying in the rut of consistent winning seasons with a playoff ceiling of the first or second round.
It’s a sobering conclusion, but the Seahawks’ belief that their current roster is close to being a Super Bowl contender has been shattered. The 49ers, Cowboys, and Eagles are all Super Bowl contenders. When it comes to matching up against those clubs, the Seahawks are woefully inadequate.
Sure, another year for this youthful core and improved injury luck could help, but this growth now feels more in line with the Vikings, Saints, Buccaneers (insert your favorite.500-level team here) if the Seahawks don’t make a change at the most significant position in the NFL: quarterback.
Geno Smith is an excellent quarterback. But when your defense is this weak, you have to do something to compensate. And the ideal place to accomplish it is where one person can have the most impact. Yes, the defense has a laundry list of issues that must be addressed, but the NFL is littered with examples of how a great franchise quarterback can catapult a team to new heights.
The Kansas City Chiefs were in a similar situation following the 2017 season, when three straight seasons of 10-plus wins resulted in early playoff exits, including losses in the first game of the postseason in successive years.
Alex Smith was solid (in fact, he was really good in 2017! ), but the decision made a year prior, trading up to draft Patrick Mahomes in the 2017 NFL Draft, led to them moving on from Smith… which turned out to be a generation-defining decision and the greatest move made in that franchise’s history.
The Seahawks will be in a similar position in the draft this year, probably in the middle to back half of the first round. You don’t have to choose in the top five in what is likely to be a QB-rich draft to land a potentially great quarterback. The Texans and Chiefs both demonstrated this with deals in the 2017 class that resulted in the acquisitions of Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes, respectively.
The Cincinnati Bengals are possibly the best example in the NFL right now of how a quarterback can be the defining element in elevating a team to Super Bowl contention. It’s not the perfect analogy for where the Seahawks are now because Cincinnati did bottom out to grab Joe Burrow at No. 1 overall. However, that choice resulted after a half-decade of wild card berths that went nowhere. With two AFC title game trips in his first four seasons, the Bengals’ floor is higher than it has been in more than 30 years.
Bottoming out isn’t an option for the Seahawks because of the money they’ve put in a few players, as well as a solid core of back-to-back draft classes that would be priced out by the time Seattle has rebuilt itself. Furthermore, we’re talking about a needed shift this offseason, and the Seahawks have too many wins at this juncture to automatically rise to the top of the draft board.
Fortunately, this is an excellent draft for a quarterback. In fact, the Seahawks may follow in the footsteps of the Chiefs by picking a rookie and sitting him for a year in order to continue building around him. With the weaknesses on this team, it won’t be a one-year repair, but it might be the impetus for a rapid surge into contention.
The Seahawks have been here before, and they may still be in the post-Super Bowl hangover of early playoff exits that has hovered over this team since 2015 (though I would argue that the Russell Wilson trade was a reset, and this is now a new era). And we all know how fast “just being glad to make the playoffs” turns into rising frustration as early postseason losses pile up.
That is the fundamental question facing the Seahawks: What is the best road back to the Super Bowl? This current stretch has demonstrated that the Seahawks are not on the same level as the top tier of NFC or NFL teams.
At this time, there is enough evidence to think that the current squad lacks the game-changing skill required at quarterback to get there.
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