The Seahawks’ defense is both exceedingly costly and mediocre

admin | November 27, 2023 | Other Clubs | No Comments

How many more seasons is Pete Carroll going to need to put together another above-average defense?

The Seattle Seahawks have committed a great deal of money and will continue to do so in order to reconstruct a defense that was once the NFL’s envy. Although there are interesting guys like Devon Witherspoon, Boye Mafe, and Riq Woolen who could be the cornerstones of the next great defense, this unit hasn’t played well together for at least the last four seasons.

In terms of FTN Fantasy’s DVOA measure, Seattle is now ranked 21st; if this trend continues, the Seahawks will not have finished higher than 20th for three straight seasons. The pass defense is ranked 23rd, and the “improved” run defense is ranked 18th. The Seahawks are mediocre at dropback and currently have one of the worst run defenses, if you prefer EPA/play.

The Seahawks are now ranked 21st in FTN Fantasy’s DVOA measure; if this trend continues, it will be the third straight season in which they have finished no higher than 20th. The “improved” pass defense is ranked 23rd, and the run defense is ranked 18th. The Seahawks are currently among the worst run defenders and only mediocre dropback defenses if you prefer EPA/play.

Having said that, the attack won’t usually cost much—at least not in 2023. All three of their starting offensive linemen, all of their running backs, and over half of their wide outs are on rookie contracts. The contract that Geno Smith has is in no way comparable to those of Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, or Jalen Hurts, among others. According to OverTheCap, the Seahawks have the 10th most costly defense and one of the least expensive offenses in the NFL in terms of 2023 cap projections.

To further illustrate this, view Arjun Menon’s graph, which lists the most expensive defenses for the 2023 season based on cash spent (not cap hits) and their efficiency as of Week 12. I am here to inform you that, if the graph is a little difficult to read, you want to be above the X-axis.

The 49ers game probably caused the Seahawks to lose more, but the biggest lesson here is that the 2023 Seahawks are the second-highest defense spending team and have once again fielded a subpar (at best) team. Very few players have missed multiple games this season, with the exception of Jamal Adams’ four games missed and Uchenna Nwosu’s season-ending pec tear in Week 6.

Despite my basic disagreement, feel free to attribute the defense’s shortcomings to the offense’s misfortunes. Strangely enough, the Seahawks defense ranks close to the bottom while playing with any kind of lead and has a higher DVOA when trailing. I don’t think they’re worn out after 0 snaps played because they’ve given up opening drive touchdowns to start a league-worst five games.

The Seahawks have made significant investments in recent seasons, and I intended to show that, but I’m too lazy, so I’ll allow Rob Staton’s post on the Seahawks Draft Blog do the heavy lifting:

Think about how much has been spent on this unit. Three recent second round picks on edge rushers (Taylor, Mafe, Hall). A huge free agent splash (Jones). An aggressive trade on a rental involving a second rounder (Williams). Another reasonable free agent addition (Reed). A first rounder at linebacker (Brooks) paired with a returning veteran (Wagner). A top-five pick at cornerback (Witherspoon) and a hugely expensive safety duo (Diggs & Adams) with one of the pair costing a fortune via trade. Then you’ve got all the big salaries dished out to the likes of Nwosu, Jones, Diggs and Adams.

Is there a team in the league that has used this much resource on the defense? At this level you expect more than simply beating up Daniel Jones behind a shocking Giants line and competing against the Carolina’s and Arizona’s. You expect a unit that can make you competitive. It isn’t happening.

You know what that means, even if the Seahawks decide to shed some of the more costly contracts and restructure their defense? Probably allocating even more draft funds to the defense! As if they haven’t been doing it for years, consistently producing subpar outcomes.

How much longer till this unit is genuinely proven to be effective? Not “good for about five weeks and then below-average the other twelve weeks” or “good against the absolute worst offenses.” The only way the Seahawks can become great again under Pete Carroll’s leadership if this continues is if they have a quarterback and, by extension, a whole offense that can routinely overcome subpar defensive play.

This isn’t the same Seattle as it was when it selected Russell Wilson in the first round of the NFL Draft, when the defense was already among the top ten, if not the best, and excelled from the moment Wilson entered the field. Lower than that, anything? Then, you shouldn’t even consider becoming a Super Bowl contender anytime soon.