The Funnel Defense Update: Week 12

Here is a look at the league’s worst run and pass funnel defenses through Week 11; regardless of the game plan, these teams constantly assault their opponents on the ground or through the air.

Knowing which defenses are getting walloped by the rush or pass can help us find matchups in Week 12 that might be better than we anticipate.

 

Run Funnel Defenses

Arizona Cardinals

The red birds are starting to appear frequently in this section, and for good reason—over the past few months, Arizona has developed into one of the NFL’s most dependable run funnel defenders. Only the Jets, Colts, Packers, and Browns were more intense run funnels going into Week 12. If you limit that to the last month, the Jets are the only team that has a more noticeable run funnel than the Cardinals.

It is rare for the Cardinals to stop a rush. They have the fifth-highest yards before contact per rush attempt and the fifth-lowest stuff rate in the league. Up to Week 11, only Denver’s allowed a higher percentage of rushing success than the Cardinals. This is just a fancy way of saying that the ground game can and has been used to assault the Cards.

What it means for Week 12:

For those who had Kyren Williams on their fantasy squad, his recovery from the lowest high ankle sprain in history should be a huge benefit. Prior to his injury in Week 6, Williams was a workhorse in the LA offense, recording at least 16 touches in five of his six games. Furthermore, as Matthew Stafford has continued to fail, the Rams have leaned heavily toward the run. In four of their last five games, the Rams have performed below expectations in terms of dropback rate. In Week 11, they were startlingly 11% behind their projected drop back rate against Seattle. I have my eyes wide open.

In Week 12, there’s not much need to be concerned about anyone stealing Kyren’s lead-back responsibilities. The second Kyren was taken off of injured reserve, the team released Darrell Henderson, and Royce Freeman has been a terrible addition to LA’s committee.

Cleveland Browns

After learning that the Browns are still a dependable run funnel defense, you probably already knew they would be featured here. Okay, so these are in place.

Cleveland’s rush defense isn’t all that poor, according to defensive statistics. They rank in the top half of the league in the majority of categories. Tackle is their one area of weakness. The Browns allow the highest rate of missed tackles per rush of any team. This has kept the Browns in the run funnel category the whole season, along with the shear fear of confronting Myles Garrett and the team’s pass rush.

What it means for Week 12:

Russell Wilson was properly made a game manager by the Broncos, who are currently 27th in the NFL in pass rate over expectations. In four of their last five games, they have performed below their predicted dropback rate.

For a while now, Javonte Williams has served as the team’s unquestionable lead back. With seventy-four carries since Week 7, Williams has the fourth most in the NFL behind an offensive line rated as the fifth best run blocking unit in the league by Pro Football Focus. You shouldn’t be alarmed that the Broncos gave up on the rush against the Vikings last week. Nevertheless, Williams completed 11 of the 13 running back rush attempts for the squad.

In what should be an ugly, low-scoring game between Denver and Cleveland, look for the Broncos to start the run like the franchise’s survival depended on it.

Pass Funnel Defenses

Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars, who have the fourth-most prominent pass funnel defense in the league, have repeatedly made their opponents give up on setting up the run.

Jacksonville’s defense has the lowest rushing success percentage in the league, the seventh-lowest rate of missed tackles per rush, and the fourth-highest rushing stuff rate in the league. In other words, they have been like nails against the run. As evidenced by the Niners’ 6 percent above-average drop back percentage against the Jaguars in Week 10, even the team with the highest run-heavy offense has been forced to turn to the throw. Week 8 against Jacksonville saw the stupidly run-heavy Steelers 11% above their projected drop back rate, a statistic that left me dizzy.

What it means for Week 12:

By all accounts, CJ Stroud and the balanced (and occasionally run-first) Houston attack ought to be given some leeway this week. It’s true that Devin Singletary has been amazing and that the Texans sincerely want to run the ball just for the sake of doing so. However, this matchup demands a pass-heavy strategy.

It’s not like Stroud hasn’t had a lot of pure passing volume lately. Over the last three games for the Texans, he has averaged around 39 attempts. A real pass-first strategy against a team that clearly uses a pass funnel may result in 40 or more dropbacks for the outstanding youngster. In Week 9, the Texans were nine percent above their predicted dropback rate, and Stroud tormented the Bucs for 470 yards and five touchdowns.

Every Houston pass catcher’s potential is enhanced by an all-out passing attack, even secondary and tertiary alternatives like Dalton Schultz and Noah Brown. This week, figure out a way to fit the Texans into your fantasy lineup.

Tampa Bay Bucs

As frequent readers of this funnel-obsessed column are already aware, the Tampa defense is one of the NFL’s most dependable pass funnels. The explanation is simple: the Bucs stop the run at every opportunity. Because of Tampa’s formidable front seven, not even the finest rush offenses in the NFL have been able to overcome them.

Only five teams allow fewer yards after contact per rush than the Bucs, and no club allows a lower EPA per run than Tampa. To put it succinctly, they are good.

What it means for Week 12:

With an unwaveringly run-heavy approach lately, the Colts have done everything in their power to conceal the untamed and woolly Gardner Minshew. They have been 7 percent below their projected drop back rate over the last four weeks, with the third lowest pass rate over expected in the league. It appears that centering the offensive around Jonathan Taylor is the aim.

If the Colts want to score points and attempt to win the game, that probably won’t work against the Bucs. Once more, and I can’t stress this enough, nobody proves it against the Bucs. It simply does not occur. In my opinion, Minshew will have to retreat despite the nerve-wracking variety it offers to the Indianapolis attack. Josh Downs and Michael Pittman could produce better-than-expected volume this week with such an approach.

Even though Pittman is still leading in air yards and target shares, Downs’ matchup is important because Tampa gives opponents’ slot receivers the seventh-highest target share. In Week 12, Downs’ PPR scamminess might reach a record high.

Philadelphia Eagles

As of the current season and the previous month, the Eagles are second in the league for pass funnel effectiveness. Every opponent of Philadelphia adopts a pass-first strategy.

What it means for Week 12:

Dalton Kincaid and Stefon Diggs are obviously your starting lineup. I just want to draw attention to the fact that the Eagles allow opponents’ slot pass catchers to have the second-highest target share in the NFL, which makes this a fantastic location for Kincaid and Khalil Shakir, who both had huge games against the Jets in Week 11. 76% of Shakir’s routes have been completed from the slot in 2023. In Week 12, he ought to be in PPR lineups.