The Free Agent Who Is The Potential Target For Yankees – Opinion

Bellinger, who was connected to the Bombers at the deadline, is already considered a top Yankees prospect going forward. Is it worthwhile to pursue him in free agency now, though?

The Yankees’ general manager, Brian Cashman, announced before the 2022–2023 offseason that the team was missing a left fielder and a right fielder from the roster. After a full year, things are theoretically different because the team now has a right fielder on the roster in Aaron Judge, who signed a long-term contract. But the Yankees still need an outfielder, especially a lefty bat, with Jasson Domínguez recovering from Tommy John surgery, Oswaldo Cabrera looking like a non-starter, and Everson Pereira looking unsteady in his first tour at The Show. During this past week’s foul-mouthed press conference/rant, Cashman himself said as much.

Cody Bellinger now comes in. The 2019 National League MVP, who was non-tendered by the Los Angeles Dodgers following the 2022 season, inked a one-year, $12.5 million contract with the Chicago Cubs that included a mutual option. He paid them handsomely, slashing.307/.356/.525 (133 OPS+, 134 wRC+) with 29 doubles, a triple, and 26 home runs on his way to winning the Silver Slugger and being voted NL Comeback Player of the Year by his peers.

Bellinger had the lowest strikeout rate of his career (15.6%), and the second-highest fWAR (4.1) (tied with his MVP performance). He was still a reliable center field glove; his value was 4 Outs Above Average. While his UZR/150 (-4.1) and Defensive Runs Saved (-3) were not as good as they may have been, they were still more than adequate. In conclusion, he managed to consistently man first base for the first time since 2020, recording 5 DRS in 421.2 innings spent there.

Unsurprisingly, Bellinger chose not to exercise his mutual option, which allowed him to become a free agent. Not unexpectedly, writers have connected him to the Yankees, his father’s main franchise, much as they did during the trade deadline. According to an MLB.com reporter survey, he will ultimately settle in the Bronx. Bellinger will be acquired by the Yankees, according to MLB Trade Rumors’ Tim Dierkes. Indeed, Sports Illustrated says. The one person at The Athletic who isn’t on board is Jim Bowden, who believes Cashman will instead make a trade for Juan Soto and enter Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s market head-on. And, on the ground at the vomit-filled GM meetings, Bob Nightengale of USA Today cited the Yankees as one of the three favorites to land Bellinger, alongside the Cubs and (once again, it seems) the Giants.

It looks like the Yankees will at least investigate signing Bellinger, unless this becomes another instance of “everyone expects us to get Bryce Harper, so we won’t make a serious push to get Bryce Harper’.” That being said, the question is whether doing so makes sense.

Bellinger’s barrel percentage, hard-hit rate, and average exit velocity were among the lowest in the league, despite his strong stats. Generally speaking, I wouldn’t sign him because that doesn’t seem like a prescription for success in the future.

At the same time, however, Luis Arraez had an even lower barrel percentage and hard-hit rate, and he won the batting title in back-to-back years in two different leagues, thanks to an understanding of his batted-ball profile.

It’s crucial to look beyond Statcast expectancy alone. As our very own Esteban Rivera noted on FanGraphs, Bellinger can overcome his inconsistent failure to drive the ball by pulling the ball and being selective at the plate. With its small porch, Yankee Stadium may be the ideal stadium for Bellinger to use this tactic.

Of course, Bellinger is a strong enough guy that, with enough hits, he won’t even require the short porch. Ask Carlos Rodón, please:

Bellinger is a perfect fit for the Yankees in 2024. Not only does he fit in well at the plate at Yankee Stadium, but he can also man center field and slide over to left field if the Martian returns. His natural advantage at first base is that he can support Anthony Rizzo.

However, this winter, Bellinger will sign a long-term contract. Is Hal Steinbrenner willing to give a guy who has so many unknowns six years and $144 million? That is The Athletic’s forecast. Or would the Yankees prefer, say, to acquire Juan Soto and try, at the very least, to extend his contract with that money? That is not how I would respond to that question, as far as I’m aware. That being said, Bellinger isn’t the worst pivot location if Soto ends up somewhere else or isn’t dealt at all.