The fact that QB didn’t play better than he did in his career against Washington doesn’t change that

Comparing Geno’s first 9 games this year to his first 9 (and his second 9) last year.

On Sunday, Geno Smith passed for a career-high 369 yards.

Well done, sir.

The Seattle Seahawks defeated the Washington Commanders, 29-26, thanks to a career day for Geno Smith.

On what turned out to be the game-winning drive, Geno went 4-for-5 for 50 yards (actually 4-for-6, but one of them was a spike).

Haha!

His 31 completions fell just short of his personal record, and his 47 pass attempts was a career high.

Hooray!

After congratulating everyone and sending out positive vibes, I have some terrible news for anyone—including myself—who believed that Geno Smith could be “the answer” for the Seattle Seahawks in the years after Russell Wilson.

He isn’t.

While I admire Geno Smith and was hopeful that he could be “the one,” at least for the next several years, I don’t take pleasure in saying that. particularly given how he began his stint as Seattle’s starting quarterback.

Here’s Geno’s stat line from the first nine games of the 2022 season:

• 207 of 283 (73.1%)
• 2,199 passing yards (244.3 per game)
• 17 TDs (6.0%) vs. 4 INTs (1.4%)
• Passer rating of 109.6

Many of the 12s were ecstatic about Geno Smith’s amazing start to his reign as Seattle’s quarterback of choice.

But as we all know, that first wave of magic was short-lived.

Here’s Geno’s stat line over the back nine last year (i.e., the final 8 regular season games, plus the playoff game):

• 217 of 324 (66.9%)
• 2,336 passing yards (259.6 per game)
• 17 TDs (5.2%) vs. 8 INTs (2.5%)
• Passer rating of 95.1

As you can see, there was an increase in throwing yards! However, his completion percentage was minus-6.2%, his touchdown rate was minus-0.8%, his interception rate was plus-1.1%, and his passer rating was minus-14.5.

Hurt!

Many of us dismissed that because Geno had good season-long stats (such as a 69.9% completion rate and a 100.9 quarterback rating). In addition, he was named Comeback Player of the Year and guided the Seahawks to the postseason.

How much can change in a few of months.

To put it simply, Geno has not had a good 2023.

Though it’s possible to argue that Geno Smith from the first part of the 2023 season is comparable to the Geno Smith from the second half of the 2022 season…

That would be giving too much.

In actuality, the Geno Smith we’ve seen this season isn’t the same as the Geno Smith we had left at the end of the previous one, despite his outstanding performance against the Commanders.

Here’s Geno’s stat line through the first nine games of the 2023 season:

• 196 of 300 (65.3%)
• 2,171 passing yards (241.2 per game)
• 11 TDs (3.7%) vs. 7 INTs (2.3%)
• Passer rating of 89.2

Note: Prior to his performance against the Commanders, the 2023 version of Geno Smith was averaging 225.3 yards per game (minus -17.9), his INT percentage was 2.8% (plus-0.5%), and his passer rating was 86.4 (minus-2.8). His completion rate (65.2%) and TD rate (3.6%) didn’t change nearly as much between Week 9 and Week 10.

Here are the numbers for each of the three 9-game (also known as half-season) periods during Geno’s tenure as Seattle’s starting quarterback to save you all the work of scrolling up:

Completion percentage:

• First 9: 73.1%
• Second 9: 66.9%
• Third 9: 65.3%

Average passing yards per game:

• First 9: 244.3
• Second 9: 259.6
• Third 9: 241.2

Touchdowns and TD percentage:

• First 9: 17 (6.0%)
• Second 9: 17 (5.2%)
• Third 9: 11 (3.7%)

Interceptions and INT percentage:

• First 9: 4 (1.4%)
• Second 9: 8 (2.5%)
• Third 9: 7 (2.3%)

Passer rating:

• First 9: 109.6
• Second 9: 95.1
• Third 9: 89.2

It goes without saying that there are several notable distinctions, particularly between the first and third nine.

For instance, Geno’s passer rating dropped by twenty-four points and his interception percentage increased from 1.4% to 2.3% in the first half of the 2022 and 2023 seasons, respectively.

That isn’t it. Alright.

The Seahawks’ record through nine games this season is the same as it was through nine games last year, despite the stark disparities in Geno’s stats.

Happy team!

Remember, though, that the 2022 Seahawks lost five of their final eight regular season games after opening the season with a 6-3 record. They were then eliminated in the wildcard round, ending the season with a 9-9 record.

As a reminder, here’s Seattle’s remaining schedule this season:

• Week 11: At Los Angeles Rams
• Week 12: Vs. San Francisco 49ers
• Week 13: At Dallas Cowboys
• Week 14: At San Francisco 49ers
• Week 15: Vs. Philadelphia Eagles
• Week 16: At Tennessee Titans
• Week 17: Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
• Week 18: At Arizona Cardinals

The optimist in me predicts that the Seahawks will do better in the second half of this season than they did the last one.

But . . .

The Seahawks play three division games in the upcoming four weeks, and five of their final eight games—against Dallas, Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and San Francisco (twice)—are against clubs that would make the playoffs if the season were just ten weeks long.

The Titans are actually the only remaining “easy”(ish) game on the schedule, and since it’s in Tennessee, Geno Smith and company’s biological clocks will kick off at 10 a.m.

To be clear, I don’t think Seattle will falter at the finish line this year or require assistance to qualify for the postseason.

In fact, I’m still standing by my preseason prediction:

Ever the optimist, I’ve got the Seahawks going 13-4 and capturing the NFC’s top seed (via tiebreakers).

Nevertheless, I can’t help but question if Seattle’s success this season is due to or independent of Geno Smith.

You may be thinking at this moment that I would rather have Drew Lock start at the outset rather than Geno Smith.

No way!

Geno’s numbers are heading lower, as I’ve demonstrated.

But in my opinion, Geno’s stats are superior to Drew Lock’s in comparable situations.

Note: Drew Lock was 2-for-6 (33.3%) for 63 yards (51 of which came on one play) with a quarterback rating of 73.6 when he (briefly) took over for Geno Smith in Week 4.

More importantly, it appears like Geno’s coaches and teammates still have a lot of faith in him.

For as long as that holds true…

Additionally, as long as Seattle continues to push for a postseason berth (which I believe they will accomplish through the conclusion of the season)…

I believe that sticking with Geno and hoping for the best is the proper course of action.

Perhaps in 2022, Geno Smith will be able to regain the “magic” that propelled his rapid rise. If so, I plan to write a follow-up essay in mid-January announcing that “The’real’ Geno Smith is back!”

I’m not holding my breath though.

In summary, unless Geno’s play significantly improves over the next nine games, I believe John and Pete could—and perhaps ought to—be looking for a new quarterback in the offseason.

The good news is that they won’t have to search far to locate a suitable one.

But that’s a story for another time.