The Braves’ rotation is off to a rocky start in 2024

On Saturday morning, the Braves confirmed the terrible news that Spencer Strider had undergone surgery on his right elbow to repair a broken UCL.

He will miss the rest of the season, a setback that the Braves must endure and navigate during the following 150 games and (probably) postseason.

If there is one area of concern about the Braves’ start to the 2024 season, it is their starting rotation. To be blunt, it has been horribly horrible in a small two-week sample, which includes a couple of Strider starts. Following Sunday, Atlanta’s starters had a 5.50 ERA. The club’s FIP (4.07) and xFIP (3.97) indicate that brighter days are ahead, but until then, the lineup and bullpen must bear a big weight.

Nobody in baseball can replace Spencer Strider. Some fans have cried out, “The Braves should have been more prepared for an injury!” ouch “why didn’t they add more in the offseason?” However, it is impossible to thoroughly prepare for losing an ace, especially a week into the season. No team can, from Philadelphia to New York, Houston, or Los Angeles.

However, the Braves are lucky to have a few choices to assist them navigate the stormy waters without Strider.

Waiting in the wings

Darius Vines will make his next start in the rotation on Monday against the powerful Houston Astros. It comes as a surprise, since most expected Bryce Elder to be the next in line for a spot in the rotation, but the Braves will go with the 25-year-old righty who made his debut last year.

While Elder had a tale of two seasons in 2023, the 24-year-old righty figures to be on the Braves’ rotation at some point. Elder may not be the sub-three ERA pitcher he was in the first half of last season, but if he can limit his walks while keeping his strikeouts moderately high — his strikeout-walk rate fell by 4.2% in the second half as the wheels fell off a little — he can be a successful big leaguer with a nearly 50% ground ball rate.

In terms of potential, A.J. Smith-Shawver is undoubtedly the team’s best prospect. Following a great spring training performance, the Braves have limited Smith-Shawver’s innings in Gwinnett, likely to keep his arm healthier for the second half of the season. Smith-Shawver still has a long way to go before he can be considered a Major League option, but that day may be approaching soon.

Allan Winans’ spot start this week went poorly, despite the fact that the Braves were terrible defensively behind him. Winans has clear limits, but with the Braves’ offense and bullpen blazing on all cylinders, they could probably survive a few starts if necessary in an emergency.

Hurston Waldrep, the top draft pick last summer, rounds up the list. Waldrep’s blistering debut last summer may have fueled the hype machine a little too much, but his devastating splitter will eventually propel him to the majors. It may not be in the near future, but a debut in the next months is definitely possible.

Elder, Smith-Shawver, Winnan, Vines, and Waldrep. That is five arms. As stated in the opening, no one can replace Strider’s abilities. However, the Braves’ lineup and bullpen should be able to sustain one of these five arms in the coming months.

Did somebody say trade deadline?

The second option for bolstering the rotation is, of course, at the trade deadline. While there is plenty of baseball to be played between now and July, pitching is always available for purchase. At the risk of combing through 29 other rosters and guessing who will be available in three months or more, the Braves will undoubtedly do their due diligence to try to add for the postseason push. Alex Anthopoulos, who is normally risk-averse, may have to step outside of his comfort zone in order to achieve success.

It’s going to be fine

There was natural panic as Strider went down. Make no mistake: the Braves aren’t as good without his lively fastball and wipeout slider every fifth day. Any team that loses its ace in early April will feel the heat.

The necessity for Max Fried, Chris Sale, Charlie Morton, and Reynaldo Lopez to stay somewhat healthy has intensified, and one of Gwinnett’s arms will have to step up.

At the end of the day, Atlanta will be OK. The offense is as strong as any, and the bullpen is eight deep (with reinforcements in Gwinnett). Elder, Smith-Shawver, Winans, or Vines appear to be more than capable of covering innings in the coming months, and the prospect of an outside impact acquisition at the trade deadline is not out of the question.

The regular season is more of a marathon than a sprint, particularly around April. The Braves may have met a roadblock as the marathon began, but it is unlikely to derail the season.