Sean Trende: “outstanding” Poll Numbers For Trump In Michigan Are A Bad Sign For Biden

On Monday night’s debut broadcast of the new RealClearPolitics show, RCP co-founder Tom Bevan and senior elections analyst Sean Trende explore President Joe Biden’s dismal poll ratings in Michigan.

Even a 2-3% [down in Democratic primary support] is a worry for Biden because it can cut his buffer by a percentage point in a general election.

If even a small percentage of those voters do not turn up, he is done… If there is a pro-Palestinian candidate on the ballot, he will have a difficult time winning the state. He doesn’t have much room for error there.

Tom Bevan: That’s a state that has been close over the past few cycles. Trump won there in 2016, and Biden won in 2020, but in every single general election poll we’ve taken since the beginning of the year, Trump has led by anywhere from 2 to 8 points, and he’s up 5 in our average. If he does not win Michigan, does Biden’s route become much more difficult?

If he doesn’t win Michigan, it’s basically over. I chuckled while you were saying that because many online are in denial about how bad things are. I don’t believe Trump has ever led a Michigan poll in 2016 or 2020.

Perhaps Trafalgar had one by the end of 2016. But this is unprecedented, and Biden is in a world of hurt.

If he loses Arab American supporters because to his attitude on Israel, he will have a difficult time winning the president without Michigan.