As the Seahawks enter the offseason, they will bring in a new era. That’s because, after 14 seasons, Seattle is replacing longstanding head coach Pete Carroll. CBS Sports’ Josh Edwards predicts the Seahawks will take University of Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy with the 16th overall choice in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Seattle will enter the 2024 season with a new head coach, and Edwards expects the Seahawks will have a new quarterback.
“Seattle has a ceiling with Geno Smith at quarterback,” Edwards says. “It has a youthful roster and does not want to be left holding the bag when it comes time to move on. It may be time to start again with a first-year head coach and a rookie quarterback.
The Seahawks have won back-to-back seasons with Geno Smith at quarterback. Smith’s 2022 season earned him Pro Bowl and Comeback Player of the Year honors, prompting him to accept a three-year, $75 million contract this offseason.
When it comes to individual statistics, Smith’s play declined in 2023. In 2022, the team had the highest completion rate in the league (69.3%), but by 2023, it had dropped to 64.7%, placing it outside the top ten. Furthermore, his throwing touchdown total fell from 30 to 20, and the Seahawks missed the playoffs this season despite winning a wild card spot in 2022.
While the Seahawks would be taking a significant step forward by moving on from Smith to the rookie McCarthy in the offseason, they could save roughly $14 million this season while suffering a $17.4 million dead cap hit. Smith’s total dead cap hit would be approximately $26 million.
Selecting McCarthy at No. 16 overall would result in a cap hit of slightly under $3 million for the 2024 season.
McCarthy has an impressive collegiate history at Michigan, where he led the Wolverines to an undefeated season and won the national championship. During his two seasons as the Wolverines’ starting quarterback, the 21-year-old finished 27-1.
According to Damian Parson of the Draft Network, McCarthy is expected to be taken in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft due to his “high-ceiling” potential.
“McCarthy projects as a high-ceiling quarterback who has some development to undergo,” Parson says in his article. “His expertise running and executing NFL/pro-style concepts will be beneficial in his transition to the NFL. “His arm talent, ball placement, and athleticism will be too appealing for teams to pass up in the first round.”
McCarthy’s athleticism — a clear advantage over Smith, who is not a mobile quarterback — may set up and prolong plays for DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
The Seahawks’ offensive line was 28th in pass blocking this season. In other words, the offensive line’s lack of consistency contributed to Smith’s downfall. Having a mobile quarterback on the field can help to compensate for those limitations.
“McCarthy is a plus-athlete,” notes Parson. “His sprinting ability makes him a serious menace to opposing defenses. An NFL offensive coordinator will have more options in the playbook for featuring McCarthy in the running game. QB zone reads, QB counters, and other features are accessible with him at the helm. He has good pocket elusiveness, allowing him to evade/avoid free-running opponents while climbing the pocket. His athleticism allows for second-reaction throws outside the pocket.”
It’s difficult to imagine the Seahawks completely moving on from Smith this offseason, especially because he’s had back-to-back winning seasons as a starting quarterback. However, picking McCarthy — or another quarterback — in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft is certainly an option.
