Packers to trade a $5 million fan favorite

Running back Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have spent the previous four years with the Green Bay Packers, but one or both could be on their way out at the end of the season.

On Thursday, December 7, The Athletic’s Matt Schneidman published a mailbag in which he examined both players’ fates. Dillon is more replaceable, according to Schneidman’s replies, and hence less likely to be back in green and gold in 2024.

Dillon has looked better recently than he did earlier in the season, but he might have needed to establish himself as a legitimate No. 1 back to earn a contract extension, which hasn’t happened and won’t happen.

However, the Packers may release Jones, re-sign Dillon to a one-year contract, and draft someone early to sit behind or share carries with Dillon. However, Dillon and his camp may seek a multiyear contract, something the Packers may be unwilling to do.

AJ Dillon Has Done Less to Prove Value to Packers than Aaron Jones

In Dillon’s case, the Packers must weigh how much they’d have to pay and how long they’d have to wait versus the type of output they can realistically expect from the RB. That value judgment must be applied to any rookies Green Bay may acquire in the mid- or late-rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft.

For Jones, the question is how much money the Packers can save by releasing or selling him, how much his absence would genuinely impact the run game given his age and prior injury issues, and where else the organization could use the money saved on Jones to strengthen the squad elsewhere.

Jones’ contract has one year left on it after this season, and releasing or moving him before June 1 would free up just under $5 million in cap space. He also recently turned 29, which corresponds to 85 normal human years in running back years.

He’s been entirely healthy for about two games this season, after appearing in 62 of a possible 66 regular-season games over the previous four seasons. I’m not sure you can just let go of someone like Jones, who has been a vital part of the organization both on and off the field, because of one injury-plagued season.

Aaron Jones’ Age, Injuries, Cap Number All Potential Issues for Packers

Schneidman is accurate that $5 million in savings may not be worth parting ways with Jones, but the Packers may save far more money in other ways. According to Over The Cap, a post-June 1 cut or trade will save Green Bay over $11.5 million.

If Jones stays with the team for the entire season, he will cost the Packers more than $17.7 million in salary cap space. That’s a lot of money to spend on a player who will be 30 in December 2024, will have seven years of NFL experience coming into next season, and has only 414 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns in seven games played in 2023. Jones has missed five games this season due to not one, but two injuries: a present knee ailment and a hamstring strain early in the season.

Jones is only still on the roster because he agreed to take a $5 million pay cut ahead of the season. As a result, his best chance of staying with the team is if the Packers opt to release Dillon.

Dillon is in his contract year, although he hasn’t performed as such. According to Pro Football Reference, he has only 521 rushing yards on a career-low 3.5 yards per carry. Dillon also has only one touchdown despite appearing in all 12 of Green Bay’s games in 2023, including five starts.

Spotrac estimates Dillon’s market value at $3.5 million per year, which is too much for the Packers to fully guarantee on any kind of multiyear contract moving ahead. He is in the final year of his $5.3 million rookie contract.

Packers Have Shown Willingness to Go Young on Offense

Dillon is far from vital, and the Packers can find running backs in the draft, so the career backup is in jeopardy.

Jones may or may not stay until 2024, but if the Packers can receive something in exchange for him, that asset, plus the cap relief, should be enough incentive to make a deal. In any event, Jones, along with constantly injured left tackle David Bakhtiari, is one of Green Bay’s top cap casualty prospects.

In recent years, the Packers have demonstrated a willingness to part ways with stars (see: Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams) while also going young at the offensive skill positions (see: Jordan Love and every pass-catcher on the team in 2023). In other words, Jones and Dillon leaving this summer will not be considered a surprise.