Nestor Cortes to make the following four adjustments

Nasty Nestor has shown flashes of his dominant 2022 form, but he still has a long way to go before fully recovering.

Nestor Cortes’ ability to rebound from his injury-plagued 2023 season and resemble the pitcher who crushed lineups in 2022 was a critical component of the Yankees’ starting rotation plans for 2024. He has shown flashes of that form in his first six appearances, most notably his eight scoreless innings against the Rays, in which he allowed six hits and no walks while striking out a season-high nine. However, as his subsequent performance — three runs on two home runs by the A’s — shown, Cortes still has a long way to go before returning to the heights of two seasons ago, and I’ve devised a set of four tweaks that I feel can help him do so.

1. Command both sides of plate with four-seamer in two-strike counts

Cortes’ success in 2022 was mostly due to his outstanding four-seam fastball, and I continue to admire his courage in attacking batters in the zone with the pitch despite its average velocity. However, he has a tendency to jam himself up against righties in two-strike counts with the heater.

On Thursday night, Cortes let up a pair of home runs on elevated middle-to-middle-in four-seamers as both Nick Allen and Tyler Nevin appeared to be looking for heat in those places. Now that batters around the league are aware of Cortes’ penchant to target high glove-side with the four-seamer in pursuit of a strikeout, I believe he has a potential to steal a called strike three on the outside edge versus righties.  What’s more, the ability to command the four-seamer away to righties in two-strike counts should make his cutter all the more deadly up-and-in, the hitter reading four-seamer away out of the hand before the pitch unexpectedly bears in on their hands.

2. Throw more changeups to righties in two-strike counts

Earlier this month, I pushed Carlos Rodón to use the changeup more frequently, and many of the reasons I outlined still apply. On Thursday’s YES broadcast, Jeff Nelson emphasized the necessity of Cortes (and lefty starts in general) having a fastball that goes away from righties, echoing Alex Verdugo’s sentiments expressed to The Athletic a little more than two weeks before.

Cortes has only thrown 39 changeups in six starts, accounting for just 7% of his pitch use, with the four-seamer, cutter, and sweeper making up the majority of his repertoire deployment. It’s interesting that he avoids the pitch given how effective it has been, with a.077 batting average,.132 xwOBA against, and a 43.5 percent whiff rate. The cambio is his only pitch that induces a negative average launch angle. If he can command the changeup to the outside edge vs. righties, it should provide a boost to his strikeout rate at the same time as improving the effectiveness of his other offerings — hitters can no longer assume that a pitch on the outer edge will break into the zone, giving them a wider area they need to cover with their barrel.

3. Vary sweeper usage to throw in more diverse range of counts and locations

Cortes’ four-seamer can become formulaic in two-strike counts, and he has a similar inclination to throw his sweeper in rather well-defined scenarios. When Cortes is behind in the count, the sweeper is significantly more frequently used.

Because he often throws the sweeper to get back into a count, his options for using it in those scenarios are further limited. He must throw it in the zone in order to rule out the potential of him starting it in the zone and having it break back to a righty. Instead, he is limited to pitching off the plate to righties and sweeping around the outside half for a get-me-over strike.

This allows the batter to swing away at pitches that start middle or in, as there is virtually little danger of a sweeper breaking in out of the zone. It also allows a right-handed batter in a favorable count to cheat on a pitch that begins well off the plate, knowing his tendency of attempting to steal a strike with the bending.

It’s also perplexing to me because Cortes rarely throws the sweeper in a chase count in an attempt to force a whiff or strikeout. Although some research suggests that the sweeper is not the best pitch to throw to an opposite-handed batter due to the lift it generates, this effect is more pronounced in sweepers thrown from righties to lefties, and a well-executed back-foot sweeper comfortably out of the zone is unlikely to cause much damage.

4. Throw sweeper from higher arm slot to avoid becoming predictable

This tip builds on the previous one about becoming less predictable while throwing the sweeper. Cortes rarely throws the sweeper from the higher arm slot he utilizes for four-seamers and cutters, preferring to drop down and pour one in at a lower angle.

The batter cannot automatically assume that when Cortes dips down, he is throwing a sweeper; he delivers a major part of his sinkers from that dropped-down arm slot. The issue is that when Cortes delivers from a higher arm slot, the hitter may effectively eliminate the sweeper. If he can learn to throw the sweeper with a more over-the-top delivery, that should create confusion for his four-seamer and cutter. There’s a reason why pitchers are advised to use a consistent release point for all of their pitches in their arsenal; it adds another dimension to fool a hitter beyond pitch velocity and movement.