Mel Kiper: Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy is still a wildcard in the 2024 NFL Draft

Since Michigan defeated Washington on Jan. 8 to conclude a 15-0 national championship season, quarterback J.J. McCarthy has risen rapidly up draft boards and mock drafts.

The Wolverines’ two-year starting quarterback has progressed from a fringe first-round candidate to a projected top-10 choice ahead of next month’s Detroit draft, but some experts remain divided on McCarthy.

McCarthy has recently been connected to the New York Giants with the No. 6 pick, and the team allegedly hosted him on a visit last week. According to Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report, the Washington Commanders, who own the second choice, will have dinner with McCarthy on Thursday before throwing at Michigan’s pro day Friday.

However, ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. still projects McCarthy outside the top ten in his most recent mock draft, with the Minnesota Vikings at No. 11.

“He, to me, is kind of a wildcard,” Kiper said during a draft preview conference call with media on Wednesday. “I kept saying to people in the league, ‘I’m waiting for him to have that game where you say he is a top-five pick, he is a top-10 pick, he is a mid-first-rounder.”He was the most difficult player at any position to grade because he wasn’t asked to carry the team.

“Most college quarterbacks are asked to be the guy, to make the plays running, throwing, getting the ball out like (Oregon’s) Bo Nix, throwing to everybody, running the football. Jayden Daniels was doing everything at LSU. (McCarthy) was not requested to do that. They had Blake Corum. They had Donovan Edwards. They had eight or nine men deep on the offensive line. They had numerous tight ends and receivers. He wasn’t invited to lead Michigan’s team.”

McCarthy has attempted much less college passes than the other top quarterback prospects in the 2024 draft, including USC’s Caleb Williams, Daniels, North Carolina’s Drake Maye, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., Daniels, and Nix.

Nonetheless, Kiper believes the former five-star prospect possesses enough fascinating tools and intangibles to warrant a high draft pick.

The experienced draft analyst cites a few games as the explanation for McCarthy’s wide range of views. In 713 career throws for the Wolverines, he threw just 11 interceptions. But some came at crucial times, including two pick-sixes in the 2022 Fiesta Bowl national semifinal against TCU, his only defeat as a starter.

McCarthy did not attempt a pass in the second half of Michigan’s 24-15 victory over No. 9 Penn State in November, as the Wolverines relied on their run game to defeat the Nittany Lions.

Kiper did, however, emphasize some of his high-level passes and leg plays during the national championship game over Washington, which was 34-13.

“How many guys late in the year when you need a football game desperately to win doesn’t throw a pass in the second half and is going to be a top-five, top-10 pick?” Kiper explained. “That does not happen. To say you know what J.J. McCarthy will be requires a leap of faith. He’s an excellent competitor. A Josh Allen-like rival. He is extremely brilliant. He has just turned 21.

“When you don’t throw the ball as frequently, it’s similar to the old days of 20-25 throws per game. You’re not throwing it all over the yard. Did you miss a throw? Who cares? We’ll toss it the next six times anyway. That was not J.J.’s deal. He hurled it, so something had to happen. There was a little more pressure there, similar to the NFL. He is a difficult evaluation. Does he deserve to be the Giants’ sixth pick or the 11th or 12th? Based on what we know about quarterbacks and what has happened in the past, I don’t see a problem with it. It is higher than I would have taken him based on his grade.”

McCarthy was listed as the No. 21 overall prospect and No. 4 quarterback on Kiper’s newest Big Board, which was revealed last week, trailing Williams (No. 1 overall), Daniels (No. 3), and Maye (No. 6).

But he also indicated Wednesday that he wouldn’t be surprised if McCarthy was chosen over Maye.

“I think Jayden is the solid two,” Kiper said of his quarterback rankings. “I believe he is up there with Caleb as the top quarterback in this draft. I believe Jayden and Drake Maye are separated by a small distance. I disagree with many who believe Drake is ahead of Jayden. I believe J.J. McCarthy puts more pressure on Drake Maye than Drake Maye does on Jayden Daniels.”

On draft night, April 25, the Giants could be presented with one of the most intriguing selections of the draft. They still have quarterback Daniel Jones, the 2019 No. 6 overall pick, under contract, but he might choose to go in a different way behind center.

“Do you believe in Daniel Jones enough not to take the heir apparent or not take the guy who gives you a security blanket if Daniel gets injured or struggles and then you have a guy you move forward with in J.J. McCarthy?” Kiper explained. He’s young. You’d have him reset the clock and do everything else, so J.J. makes sense.

“It is never too early for a QB. There is not much separating J.J. with Drake Maye in a lot of teams’ eyes. Some might even have him ahead of Drake Maye.”