How Will This Star Be Replaced by the Minnesota Twins?
The 2023 season was quite successful for the Minnesota Twins.
Thanks to their strong rotation, the Twins were able to win the AL Central and go on to the Divisional round of the playoffs. AL Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray led that rotation.
Last season, the Minnesota Twins rotation had the second-best ERA in all of baseball. Bailey Ober, Pablo Lopez, and Gray’s work were largely responsible for this. The Twins needed the pitching to step up because their offense was lacking, and it did.
However, Gray turned down the Twins’ qualifying offer this summer. Now that Gray is formally a free agent, the Twins must make some choices.
What is the procedure for substituting Sonny Gray?
Do Nothing
This is the easiest way to take Sonny Gray’s spot. The Twins have no choice but to spend money on offensive support and do little to improve the rotation.
The Twins will still have a strong rotation if they choose to take this course. Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, Bailey Ober, and Louie Varland together may form one of baseball’s top ten lineups. They are sturdy from top to bottom even if there is nothing spectacular about them.
I believe that there are a few reasons why this is unlikely to occur. Firstly, Louie Varland might be worth more as a bullpen piece. Varland has a 4.82 ERA in 82 major league innings, demonstrating his ability to be a reliable starter. Nevertheless, Varland had glimpses of a lockdown reliever in the previous season. Despite just throwing 12 innings, he struck out 17 batters and had a 1.50 ERA.
The rotation would be quite thin yet being strong, which is another reason. Players like Brent Headrick, Randy Dobnak, Simeon Woods-Richardson, and others would be under contract with the Twins. In terms of rotational depth, that is not optimal.
In the end, staying silent is a terrible choice. The only silver lining would be that they would still be able to keep the compensatory draft pick in the event that Gray contracts with another team.
Re-Sign Kenta Maeda
Personally, I am a big fan of this move. Maeda is going to be a relatively inexpensive depth add. Spotrac has Maeda listed with a market value of $11.5M. Players with a similar market value include the likes of Jack Flaherty, Zack Greinke, and Lucas Giolito.
Of that group, I would rather have Maeda on a short-term deal.
Maeda is 35 years old and will turn 36 next season. However, he showed last season that he still has some juice in the tank. He was returning from an injury and struggled a bit early last season but finished strong. In the second half of the season Maeda threw to a 3.79 ERA in 71 innings.
His best days are behind him but Maeda would provide depth and be a solid option to be the number five starter for the Twins. Bringing back Maeda as well as making other supplemental moves could shore up this rotation to make another post season push.
Target Free Agents
There have been reports that the Twins front office is not looking to increase the payroll this year. Who knows just how true these reports are, but still it looks unlikely that the Twins hand out a massive contract this offseason.
Three potential free agent signings that make sense for the Twins are Marcus Stroman, Michael Wacha, and Wade Miley.
Stroman would be the closest thing to a big signing. He is coming off back-to-back solid seasons in Chicago and would form a formidable grouping with Lopez and Ryan at the top of the Twins rotation. I could see a three-year deal for somewhere around $50 million, potentially an opt out and/or an extra year.
Pair a Wacha signing with bringing back Maeda and the Twins will have added substantial depth.
Finally Wade Miley would be considered the value signing. Similar to a move for Wacha, pairing Miley with Maeda would make for good depth additions.
At 37 years old durability is certainly a question but the price tag could be enticing. Miley turned down a one-year, $10 million mutual option for the Brewers, so his representation must have thought he was worth more in free agency.
Make a Trade
Making a trade could be the best way for the Twins to add pitching if there are payroll concerns. If the Brewers are really considering blowing it up, the Twins should look to their neighbors to the east.
Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta would both be excellent additions for the Twins. Of the options discussed thus far, these two have the best chance of providing the Twins with the same or more productivity than Gray.
Burnes is in the final year of arbitration. Despite being one of the best pitchers in baseball, only having one year of control should make Burnes less expensive than he otherwise would have been. Burnes just turned 29 and will likely be a Cy Young candidate for the next five years at least.
In his last three seasons, Burnes has thrown 562 innings with a 2.94 ERA.
Arguably the best pitcher in baseball would be a huge, earth shattering addition. I imagine a package looking something like Tanner Schobel (MIN #7), Kala’i Rosario (MIN #19), and Cory Lewis (MIN #13) for Burnes. If it takes a little more to get Burnes, with how crowded the Twins infield is don’t be surprised if top prospect Brooks Lee is on the table.
Peralta is a different situation than Burnes. While Peralta is not the pitcher Burnes is, he is under contract through 2026. Peralta has been very solid his last three seasons and would help the Twins to continue the theme of being without a true ace but solid throughout the rotation.
In 388 innings the last three seasons, Peralta has a 3.41 ERA with over 11 strikeouts per nine innings. A package of Danny De Andrade (MIN #10), C.J. Culpepper (MIN #14), and David Festa (MIN #9) could do it.
Re-Sign Sonny Gray
I said that it is hard to see the Twins chasing a big name starting pitcher. However, what should remain in the realm of possibility is re-signing Sonny Gray.
Gray was the heart and soul of the Twins rotation last year. All reports indicate he was beloved in the clubhouse. It would be a massive boost to be able to retain him.
At the end of the season, Gray indicated that there was certainly some desire to stay in Minnesota if possible. At 34 years old, I am sure that stability is an important factor when deciding where to play. Gray is loved by the fans in Minnesota and everyone would be happy to see him return.
Coming off a second place finish in Cy Young voting, Gray looks to be one of the best free agent pitchers available. A three-year deal around $65M likely brings Gray back to Minnesota and solidifies one of the best rotations in baseball.
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