How Sheff United, Burnley, and Luton can avoid the worst-ever relegation battle in Premier League history

SPORT ANALYSIST: Though there is little likelihood of all three teams winning, there is still (some) hope because Bournemouth is near and some Six Pointers are forthcoming.

If it seems cruel to refer to this as the Premier League’s worst-ever relegation battle, let’s first examine the statistics.

No three teams have finished with less points overall after 12 games since the Premier League’s inception than Burnley, Luton Town, and Sheffield United did.

To give them some leeway, this record-low number was also achieved in 2020–21, when Sheffield United, West Brom, and Fulham were all on one shameful point. However, this is not a statistic you want to replicate, as all three of those clubs would eventually drop, more than 10 points outside of safety.

In 2008–09, the bottom three teams—Newcastle, Sunderland, and West Brom—had a healthier total of 35 points at this point (only Sunderland would remain in the standings). Meanwhile, for those who are yelling, “that Derby County season,” even the Rams had six points after 12 games in 2007–08—gaining just five more in their next 26 games—and shared a total of 21 points with Bolton and Wigan.

2020-21

How it started

• 17. Burnley         Pts: 9     GD: -12
• —
• 18. Fulham         Pts: 8     GD: -10
• 19. West Brom   Pts: 6     GD: -16
• 20. Sheff Utd      Pts: 1     GD: -16

How it finished

• 17. Burnley         Pts: 39   GD: -22
• —
• 18. Fulham         Pts: 28   GD: -26
• 19. West Brom   Pts: 26   GD: -41
• 20. Sheff Utd      Pts: 23   GD: -43

2023-24

How it has started

• 17. B’mouth        Pts: 9     GD: -16
• —
• 18. Luton             Pts: 6     GD: -12
• 19. Sheff Utd      Pts: 5     GD: -21
• 20. Burnley         Pts: 4     GD: -21

As such, it is challenging to focus on the positive. There is tangible evidence that the gap is widening and that reaching the “promised land” is one thing, but remaining there is quite another: the three promoted clubs, who have yet to maintain a spotless record between them, are already trailing behind.

Maybe this indicates that things will only get worse. Luton’s Premier League promotion astonished everyone, even themselves. Their season is unfolding as many had anticipated, even though they would spend a league-low £9.5 million on players in the summer—roughly £500k less than their projected £10 million stadium renovation.

Burnley had higher expectations going into the season, which were allegedly enhanced by their parachute payment and Vincent Kompany’s skill. However, it hasn’t worked out, as the Clarets are currently losing five straight games and are at the bottom of both the table and the goals scored column.

Sheffield United supporters may be the most upbeat right now after their team has won four of their past five games, but the club, which was only here three seasons ago and is still mired in takeover controversy, is all too familiar with diminishing hope.

The only bright spot is that Bournemouth is just three points above Luton in 17th place. However, with Fulham three points ahead in 16th place, it already appears that Bournemouth will only win three of the four games. It will take a miracle for only one of Burnley, Luton, and Sheffield United to lose.

It would require adjustments.

Hope for Burnley with upcoming games?

This season, opponents have kicked the Clarets down for pleasure, making Turf Moor more of a sandcastle than a fortress. As a result, the Clarets have lost their first six home games in the English top flight, a record that is unprecedented.

It seems like a no-brainer to start here. Last season, Nottingham Forest managed to win 30 of their 38 points at the City Ground thanks to their strong home performance. Burnley needs to put this run behind them, take advantage of the international break to start fresh, and view their next three Turf Moor games as chances to win nine points.

Burnley’s three upcoming games—against West Ham on November 25 and Sheffield United on December 2—will determine whether this struggling side still has any fight left. Everton will visit Turf Moor later in December.

Few anticipated such a disastrous start, and as a result, Kompany’s reputation has suffered greatly. Given Burnley’s offensive style of football in a Championship season where they racked up 101 points, the man who was projected to succeed Pep Guardiola at Manchester City is now in charge of the only Premier League team that is yet to score double digits.

The transition has been difficult, to put it bluntly, and in order to survive, they will likely need to find success in January. However, it is not easy to find a striker worthy of their caliber in the transfer window.

Luton need a famous win

In terms of shots on goal, Luton appears to be having a better season than their other cellar clubs, as they have 140 shots compared to Burnley’s 122 and Sheffield United’s league-low 105.

Additionally, they have a better defensive record, which has led to a goal differential of -12 to their opponents’ -21. However, this is concerning because they have only won one of their last 12 games and have not kept a clean sheet.

Although Luton narrowly lost to Manchester United over the weekend and was only seconds away from a historic victory over Liverpool, the team that was called underdogs from the start did not need any near-misses.

To spur the team, the staff, and the supporters on, they needed three points instead of one against Liverpool—a result to brag about. Using Forest as an example once more, their victories over Liverpool and Arsenal proved crucial to their successful survival attempt the previous season. Forest was the play-off winners.

Next month, Luton will face Manchester City on December 10 and Arsenal on December 5. They may use a little shock of their own. It’s easier said than done, but against the Gunners in Kenilworth Road on a Tuesday night? The upset gods have carefully considered the date of this fixture.

Sheff Utd must drag Bournemouth down

It is difficult to realize that even a victory won’t be enough to pull oneself out of the relegation zone when one is four points from safety, but Sheffield United is certain that they can force Bournemouth back into the match on November 25.

Sheffield United is the home team, and they may as well win because a six-point deficit might be disastrous for both Burnley and Luton should they lose.

Sheffield United has proven they can overcome the odds with their recent victory over Wolves and draw against Brighton. They only need to get better moving forward and find a way to maintain more possession, as Luton is the only team with fewer shots on goal (33 compared 32) and passes made (4,124 versus 3,609) than them.

It appears to be an enormous undertaking, and after they play Burnley at Turf Moor in December, the result will be much more evident. If there was ever a six pointer, this is it.