Early MLB 2024 trade deadline analysis covering 15 teams

We’re just three weeks into the season, but let’s use the old crystal ball to gaze three months ahead to July 30th, the MLB trade deadline.

What may happen? Who might get traded? This is a small activity called the Way-Early Trade Deadline Extravaganza Preview. We’ll identify one (or sometimes two) players from each team who are most likely to be moved, with a concentration on major leaguers but also including some prospects. This is an exercise in going through rosters, evaluating the players in free agency who are more likely to be traded if a team is struggling, and determining which teams will be adding — or subtracting. (That is especially difficult this year because there are only a few apparent non-playoff contenders.)

Last year’s edition correctly identified seven players who were traded during the season: Lucas Giolito, C.J. Cron, Michael Lorenzen, Aroldis Chapman, Luis Urias, Luis Patino, and JJ Bleday (who was traded before the season but after we finished our exercise). Another three players — Jarred Kelenic, Ryan Pepiot, and Dominic Fletcher — were traded this offseason. Shohei Ohtani, you may recall, was not traded.

Who will we be right about this year? Let’s get to it.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Trade candidate: Justin Martinez

The Diamondbacks’ most likely area of need will be the bullpen, which does not normally necessitate trading a top prospect. I’m sure several teams would like to take a chance on Martinez, one of the sport’s hardest throwers who possessed “Nuke” LaLoosh’s control before the “Bull Durham” character learned to breathe through his eyelids. Martinez pitched with Arizona last season, reaching 102.7 mph but walking 11 batters in 10 innings. He returned to Triple-A for the 2024 season.

Atlanta Braves

Trade candidate: Owen Murphy

The Spencer Strider injury suggests one possible trade direction: beginning pitching. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked the Braves’ farm system 28th entering the season, so any trade for a competent starter would most likely be a three-for-one deal. Hurston Waldrep, the team’s only top-100 prospect, appeared to get a midseason call-up but allowed 11 hits and seven runs in his first Double-A start, so perhaps not. Murphy, the No. 20 choice in 2022, has 6⅔ scoreless innings in High-A and was an athletic two-way player in high school. While he will need to improve his velocity to become an impact starter, he has already shown promise.

Baltimore Orioles

Trade candidates: Heston Kjerstad/Coby Mayo

Despite Jackson Holliday’s promotion to the major leagues, the Orioles’ Triple-A lineup remains formidable, with top-100 prospects Kjerstad and Mayo. Corbin Burnes was the Orioles’ first frontline starter signed this summer. Will general manager Mike Elias try for another one? This is what I see: Kjerstad is an outfielder who also plays some first base. Mayo is a third baseman who also plays some first base. There is a reason for this: neither is particularly competent at those positions (otherwise, they would not be playing first base).

In Double-A, the Orioles have Samuel Basallo, a 19-year-old catcher whose bat is more advanced than his glove. In other words, there could be a future logjam at first base/DH, allowing the Orioles to make another blockbuster trade for a pitcher.

Boston Red Sox

Trade candidates: Chris Martin/Tyler O’Neill

Okay, I recently made the Carolina Reaper prediction: the Red Sox will represent the American League in the World Series. Hello, anything is possible. More likely, they’ll look up at the postseason race on July 30 and decide to trade a couple of their upcoming free agents — and we can already hear the anger from Red Sox fans. Martin is the prototypical trade deadline move: an experienced reliever with postseason experience who can improve a bullpen by pounding the strike zone. O’Neill is also entering free agency and is off to a strong start.

Let’s see if he can remain healthy and continue to hit; if he can, the scarcity of middle-of-the-order bats could make him one of the most sought-after position players at the deadline.

Chicago Cubs

Trade candidate: Alexander Canario

The Cubs’ decision not to go all-out this offseason to strengthen the club signals that the front management is taking a measured approach to the present and future, therefore I believe they will keep their top prospects from the majors’ second-ranked farm system. This includes keeping Pete Crow-Armstrong, Cade Horton, Owen Caissie, Matt Shaw, and Kevin Alcantara. They have a number of other fascinating talents, including shortstops Jefferson Rojas and Cristian Hernandez, but we’ll go with Canario.

He played six games for the Cubs in 2023 and isn’t a big-time prospect, but he’s nearly ready for the majors and has been blocked in Chicago. He may bring back a bullpen arm. If the Cubs need an impact starter, they have enough minor league depth to make a deal.

Chicago White Sox

Trade candidates: Michael Kopech/Mike Clevinger

The White Sox are in for a long, wretched season — well, they’ve even had a short, miserable start — so we know they’ll be willing to trade anyone. Kopech is the one to watch here. He’s back in the bullpen, where his control difficulties are less of a concern, and his fastball is averaging 98.5 mph. He is not a free agency until after the 2025 season, but the White Sox should consider trading him now because he might be an impact arm for a playoff team. Clevinger signed late and is still getting started, although he’s on a one-year contract. Given the possible scarcity of starting pitchers, he may also get attention if he performs well.

Cincinnati Reds

Trade candidate: Sal Stewart

It’s unclear what the Reds might need: an outfielder, possibly a second baseman with Matt McLain out due to shoulder surgery (though he could return in August), a bullpen piece, or a starting pitcher like everyone else. The Reds have a youthful club and an intriguing farm system, with six prospects in the preseason top 100, but their aggressiveness and willingness to move from the farm will be determined by their position in the standings.

Elly De La Cruz, Jonathan India, McLain, and Jeimer Candelario will anchor the Reds’ infield for the next three years. Five of their top ten prospects are infielders, so that’s where they’ll look to trade (though Noelvi Marte is serving a PED ban and Edwin Arroyo has season-ending shoulder surgery). Stewart, ranked No. 71 in the top 100, is a third baseman with power and hitting ability. He and Cam Collier have a similar chronology, thus the Reds could move one of them.

Cleveland Guardians

Trade candidate: Juan Brito

Shane Bieber’s season-ending injury affects the Guardians’ playoff prospects, but it also ensures there will be no Bieber trade speculations this summer as he enters free agency. Even if the Guardians remain in postseason contention, I don’t foresee any significant roster additions: They made no moves at the 2022 deadline (and still won the division).

Their only area of depth is in the infield, where Brito and Jose Tena are currently in Triple-A and have no chance of playing in the majors because Jose Ramirez, Brayan Rocchio, and Andres Gimenez are all long-term contracts. Brito and Tena may eventually project as utility players, but they might be utilized in a trade to seek pitching help or, god forbid, an outfielder.

Colorado Rockies

Trade candidate: Elias Diaz

This is a longshot. The Rockies rarely make large transactions, preferring to preserve their key players, even if they are average. Diaz, however, is a prospective free agent and 33 years old, so he does not appear to be a long-term answer for the Rockies, even if they were to bring him back in 2025. Drew Romo, their prospective future catcher, is currently in Triple-A. The catcher market is always thin, and Diaz may be the best available, even for a team looking to improve its backup situation — similar to the Astros in 2022, when they acquired Christian Vazquez to back up Martin Maldonado (and Vazquez ended up starting the World Series-clinching Game 6).

Detroit Tigers

Trade candidates: Jack Flaherty/Sawyer Gipson-Long

The Tigers face a difficult dilemma: Javier Baez is signed through 2027 for a total of roughly $100 million. He can still play shortstop, but his offense, which was practically unplayable last season, has devolved into unplayable territory thus far in 2024. Even his previously great might is now non-existent: He only hit nine home runs last season and is yet to hit one this year. We’re approaching the point when the Tigers should contemplate eating the deal and cutting bait. At the very least, are they looking to improve their offensive at shortstop? Perhaps they will finally go with in-house alternative Zach McKinstry, or they may pursue Milwaukee’s Willy Adames. In any case, they have plenty of starting pitching depth to work with.

Houston Astros

Trade candidates: Brice Matthews

Are we seeing the Astros’ demise? It’s been a disastrous start, as evidenced by Hunter Brown’s recent nine-run first inning, with pitching issues and injuries all across the roster. It could just be one of those years, but for the time being, I believe the Astros will add to their roster rather than subtract at the deadline. Matthews, an athletic shortstop with power and speed but strikeout issues, was the team’s first-round pick in 2023 after putting up impressive stats at Nebraska. Jeremy Pena and Jose Altuve block him at shortstop and second base, respectively, making him a potential trade target. If the Astros continue to struggle, their biggest pending free agent is Alex Bregman, who will undoubtedly spice up the trade deadline if he becomes available.

Kansas City Royals

Trade candidate: Will Klein

I originally had Will Smith here, but that was assuming the Royals wouldn’t be competitive and would eventually look to trade the veteran closer for a longshot pitching prospect — Smith, after all, has pitched for the last three World Series winners, so any contending team should want him as a good luck charm. Given their strong start, perhaps the Royals want him. If they are surprise postseason contenders, Klein is the type of reliever prospect that is frequently traded: he throws in the mid 90s but is wild and unpolished enough to aid a contender right now.

Los Angeles Angels

Trade candidate: Matt Moore

As entertaining as it would be to fantasize on a Mike Trout trade, the most likely outcome here is that Trout stays with the Angels, the team falls out of the playoff race, and Moore gets traded. Moore is one of the top left-handed relievers in the game. Indeed, his 2.20 ERA in 2022-23 is first among all left-handed pitchers with at least 100 innings. He’s also signed a one-year, $9 million contract, making him appealing and inexpensive to any team.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Trade candidate: Jackson Ferris

Will the Dodgers really need help? Sure, there are some flaws here. The outfield is a potential problem because Chris Taylor appears helpless at the plate, James Outman has struggled, and Jason Heyward — who is unlikely to match his stellar 2023 in the first place — has been injured. It’s easy to imagine a scenario in which Mookie Betts returns to right field and the Dodgers sign a shortstop or trade for an outfielder. The bullpen does not appear to be particularly deep, either. The Dodgers continue to have a rich pool of pitching and position player prospects from which to make any transaction.

Ferris is a 6-foot-4 lefty acquired from the Cubs in the summer for Michael Busch. He has big-time bat-missing talent but is also a reliever risk due to command and delivery concerns.

Miami Marlins

Trade candidates: Jesus Luzardo/Josh Bell/Tanner Scott

The Marlins’ season is already over, so incoming president of baseball operations Peter Bendix will be taking a lot of calls in July. Or perhaps not. Do the Marlins have anyone interesting to trade away? Bell and Scott are pending free agents, so they meet that requirement, but Bell’s $16.5 million salary is an impediment, while Scott, who had a fantastic 2023, has lost the strike zone early on. If the Marlins simply want to blow everything up, Luzardo is an intriguing name, considering he still has two seasons of team control remaining.

It would take a significant prospect trade to get him, but the Orioles and Cubs, who have Kiley’s top two farm systems, could be seeking for a difference-maker in their respective rotations.