Despite a win over the Vikings, the Lions’ biggest worries remain

admin | December 27, 2023 | Other Clubs | No Comments

Some difficulties must be addressed by the Lions.

Whatever happens from here on out, the Detroit Lions’ season has been and will continue to be a rousing success. They won the NFC North division for the first time in franchise history in Week 16 with a 30-24 victory over the Minnesota Vikings. But just because the Lions have created history doesn’t mean there isn’t more to play for. The Lions are currently tied for first position in the NFC with the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles. They’ll take the home playoff game, but the possibility of a first-round bye week is well worth considering.

However, just because the Lions won their division doesn’t mean there aren’t still some areas of concern for this squad. The Lions are not a perfect squad, but they are a very excellent team. They’ll be a tough out in the playoffs, but if these aspects of the club don’t improve between now and then, their playoff aspirations may be dashed sooner than expected.

Lions’ defense

The Lions’ offensive has been excellent all season. Their defense, on the other hand, has not changed. This unit started the season strong, ranking eighth in EPA allowed per play, seventh in EPA allowed per dropback, and 16th in EPA allowed per rush through Week 8. That’s fantastic.

However, things have deteriorated since the Lions’ Week 9 bye. Since Week 10, the Lions’ EPA per play has plummeted from sixth to twenty-fourth. Most notably, they’ve plummeted from ninth to dead last in EPA allowed per dropback. That will happen if a club allows Nick Mullens to throw for 411 yards against them, but Justin Jefferson surely helps.

However, the Lions have struggled with this apparently every week since their bye week. They only allowed at least 24 points in a game twice before the bye, and one of those games was against the Carolina Panthers, who got there with 1:55 left in the game while down 42-17. Following their bye week, the Lions have let up at least 24 points in six of their previous seven games. To make matters worse, the only teams in this period with EPA per play on offense in the top half of the NFL are the Green Bay Packers (eighth) and the Minnesota Vikings (15th). The Lions have been outscored by offenses that are below average.

The Lions offense is fantastic. This season, they rank seventh in the NFL in EPA per play, and sixth since their bye week. Their defense, on the other hand, has struggled against clubs that aren’t even rated the greatest offensively. If they couldn’t stop those teams, how can they stop the NFC’s finest offenses? This week’s game against the Dallas Cowboys will be a terrific litmus test to determine how well this defense can stand up against the top of the NFL.

Road Jared Goff

Jared Goff isn’t the finest quarterback in the league, but the Lions have equipped him with everything he needs to succeed. Goff has the eighth-highest EPA + Completion Percentage Over Expectation (CPOE) in the league thanks to their offensive line and weapons. But he hasn’t been the same quarterback away from home as he has been at home.

This season, Jared Goff has performed admirably on the road, but a huge number of Detroit’s road games have been played inside. This season, the Lions are 3-2 with a -18 point differential when playing outside. Unless the Lions achieve the top seed in the NFC, they will be forced to play one of these games. If they do, the Lions and Jared Goff will have to step up.