Cost of Top-3 Move-Up for the Broncos Told by Two Recent Draft Trades

admin | January 25, 2024 | Other Clubs | No Comments

If the Denver Broncos decide to trade up into the top-3 of the NFL draft, there is recent precedent for them to do so.

There have been multiple whispers from the fan base that the Denver Broncos will select a quarterback of the future this year, with the team scheduled to pick at No. 12 overall in the 2024 NFL selection. As things stand, the majority of analysts predict that at least three quarterbacks will be selected in the top 10, which puts Denver in danger of, at most, settling for the class’s fourth signal-caller.

Although there is still much to be determined and the process is still in its early stages, there are a few issues with the next three candidates: Caleb Williams of USC, Drake Maye of North Carolina, and Jayden Daniels of LSU.

Michael Penix, Jr., a sixth-year senior from Washington, has a long history of injuries, including two ACL tears. Both Penix and Bo Nix of Oregon are worried about their ages since, at 24, they will be entering their rookie seasons as quarterbacks in the NFL. J.J. McCarthy of Michigan is a very young, raw player with amazing tools who teams will fall in love with if they can get beyond a few years of growing pains.

A resounding chorus of Broncos supporters has been hammering home the need for the organization to bundle as much capital as possible in an attempt to advance and choose one of the best signal-callers over the last few weeks. The majority of those screams specifically demand a trade with the top-ranked Chicago Bears, who own the first overall pick.

The Broncos will need a large trade package to even come close to making that kind of advancement. Regarding estimating the price of such a trade, we have a few instances from the past ten years that may help us estimate the approximate amount.

Two Eagles Trades in 2016

The No. 13 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft belonged to the Philadelphia Eagles. After head coach Chip Kelly was ousted, the Eagles were in dire need of a long-term quarterback solution since Sam Bradford was not able to live up to expectations.

That offseason, Eagles general manager Howie Roseman showed he was a competitive player by making two trades during draft month to move up to the No. 2 overall pick.

In exchange for the No. 8 overall pick, the Miami Dolphins received the No. 13 overall pick, linebacker Kiko Alonso, and cornerback Byron Maxwell. In the second trade, which took place roughly a week before the draft began, the Eagles sent the Cleveland Browns pick eight, two third- and fourth-round picks from the same class, a first-round pick from 2017 and a second-round pick from 2018 in exchange for the No. 2 overall pick, which was North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz.

Even while this seems like a lot of money, the Eagles in the first deal really pulled off a huge steal. In order to avoid salary cap penalties, Miami was eager to sign high-dollar players at the time. The Eagles capitalized on this by offering middle-of-the-road guys enhanced contracts.

It is more unlikely that the Broncos will be able to complete a comparable transaction given that Philadelphia was also able to locate a partner ready to take those guys. The Broncos do have seasoned players on big contracts, so it is not like they lack tradeable assets.

For a few months now, there have been rumors circulating that Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Justin Simmons would be moved for draft capital. Finding a team ready to go down in exchange for those guys and having enough salary cap room is the challenge. They would also have to deal with a big shift in the last eight years in terms of draft pick and positional worth.

Thus, while it would be simple to project the Tennessee Titans—who own the No. 7 overall pick, $68 million in salary cap space, and a big need at wide receiver and in the secondary—as a possible destination for Jeudy and Simmons, it is unclear what demands they will make in order to proceed with a new coaching staff.The Titans might decide to continue their youth push and disregard senior players.

Denver lacks the draft money necessary to make the second trade-up that moved Philadelphia up to the No. 2 overall pick. Philadelphia, even after jumping up from No. 13 to 8 overall in the draft, had nine draft choices available to them in 2016.

The Eagles could afford to keep their third- and fourth-round picks from the second deal and still use them to bolster their squad going forward. The Broncos simply do not have that luxury this season unless they can acquire additional picks for those aforementioned guys over the summer. They have only six selections and voids all over the roster.

Denver is not likely to replicate this situation.

Niners Jump to No. 3 Overall in 2021

In one of the most alluring quarterback classes in recent draft history, the San Francisco 49ers made a bold decision to trade up in 2021. The Dolphins received the No. 3 overall pick from the Niners in exchange for a third-round pick that year, two future first-round selections, and the No. 12 overall pick, with five players predicted to be selected in the top 15.

In the end, the Niners selected quarterback Trey Lance from North Dakota State with that pick. After an extremely dismal season plagued by injuries, San Francisco’s future as a starting quarterback seemed questionable with Jimmy Garoppolo in place.

According to numerous reports, head coach Kyle Shanahan held quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo accountable for the 49ers’ Super Bowl LIV defeat. In addition, Garoppolo’s injury in 2020 caused him to miss a lot of time.

Even though Lance did not work out for the Niners in the end, they were willing to risk their draft capital to acquire their quarterback of the future with a team that was already assembled and had just finished a season at the top of the NFL.

In terms of their overall roster construction, the Broncos are not even close to where the Niners were at that point. Therefore, even if they were willing to move up to the top of the draft, it would require a significant portion of their already meager draft capital and probably a quality rookie starter to be able to do so. A fee like that might be too much to pay.

However, in Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Surtain II, the Broncos have a trade component that might bring them more than the cost of a first-round pick.

In theory, Denver could start talks with the Bears for the No. 1 overall pick by offering the No. 12 pick, a potential first-round selection, a potential second-round selection, and Surtain. But it is just the point of discussion.

The Takeaway

Without a doubt, the quarterback that the Broncos will start for years to come is not on the present roster. Jarrett Stidham is merely a stand-in for Russell Wilson, who will most certainly be released before the March 1 start of the next league season.

The Broncos will need to roll with the punches for at least a year or two and make a commitment to a young player sooner rather than later.But in the last two seasons, Denver has already severely diminished the talent and depth of its team by trading Coach Payton to the New Orleans Saints and valuable draft picks to the Seattle Seahawks in the Wilson trade.

In order to give a young quarterback the best chance for success early in his career rather than throwing him to the wolves, the Broncos urgently need to add players to their roster.In order to get into the top 3, Denver faces a difficult dilemma as well because all three of the Bears, Washington Commanders, and New England Patriots need to make adjustments to their rosters.

Although Justin Fields is still growing, Chicago may prefer to start fresh at the position with a rookie who is less expensive. The Patriots appear to have given up on the Mac Jones experiment, and Washington will look to replace Sam Howell.

We can discuss hypotheticals until we are blue in the face, but the simple truth is that Denver would be better off trading back to gain additional capital in order to find their guy in 2025, or standing pat at No. 12 overall and selecting its next favorite quarterback.