Cardinals should not trade Dylan Carlson, see why
They ought to hang onto him in the event that they don’t receive fair value, which they won’t.
I have this strange habit of seeming to form opinions based on what other Card lovers say. Lance Lynn was one of my favorite Cardinals players back in 2012 or 2013. The fan base at the time kind of despised Lynn, but that’s all been lost to history, and some of you might not even believe me. My assessment of Lynn was almost entirely based on that. He was underappreciated since his ERA didn’t correspond with his advanced statistics, and since I had to defend him frequently, you develop a bond with him.
I bring this up since Dylan Carlson is experiencing a similar situation. I don’t believe Carlson is despised. But at first, I was among those who didn’t think Carlson would be particularly good right away. In 2020, even if I support him, I didn’t think he should make the squad out of spring training and he isn’t a centerfielder. To be honest, I completely agree with Tommy Edman playing CF. Edman should play center field as soon as Masyn Winn joins the major leagues; I’m not suggesting he should on Opening Day.
Making the argument for Carlson then makes me seem like a strange person. I find myself shifting sides as the tide has swung more against him—or rather apathy toward him. When I refer to sides, I mean that, in general, everyone has either a strong opinion of a player, a negative opinion of a player, or a position in between. I don’t intend to be pro or con a player. As I stated in the outset, my position appears to be a reaction to the fan base’s preferences. For me, it’s more like an instinct.
The Cardinals are reportedly shopping Tyler O’Neill and Dylan Carlson. If Tommy Edman is a centerfielder and Carlson isn’t, then I should be more in favor of this. But given what I know about Carlson’s potential as a player, I find it extremely difficult to see the Cardinals acquiring anything near what Carlson ought to fetch in a trade. Perhaps O’Neill. Carlson, I doubt it.
I’m not sure what ZiPS will project for Carlson, but in 576 PAs last year, they predicted 2.5 fWAR. Both must now be lower, I suppose. Prior to injuries and the Cardinals benching him, Carlson was a 2.5 fWAR player in both his second and third seasons. Now, he only has 255 PAs and 0.2 fWAR. He has 1.2 WAR in just 255 PAs according to Steamer, the only projection method available at the moment, which translates to 2.7 WAR in 576 PAs.
Carlson’s projection to be at least a mediocre outfielder with perhaps a little bit more potential appears extremely likely. Carlson’s 80th percentile from the previous season was 4.1 WAR. Although Carlson has been around for a while, it’s easy to forget that he turns 25 the next season. I could name a long list of players who had not even made their professional debuts when Carlson was his age, but you are presumably already aware of that.
Carlson’s surplus value is enormous if he is at least an average player, under team control for three years, and receives $1.8 million in his first arbitration year, as MLBTR estimates. or in any case ought to be. He may receive a total of $15 million in arbitration; if he receives more, he is most likely better than the typical player. Assuming he is 2 WAR in 2024, 1.8 in 2025, and 1.5 in 2026 (which, considering his age, I believe is more likely to be closer to 2, 2, and 2), his on-field worth would be $53 million. I realize trade value doesn’t work like this. That’s in theory, $38 million in surplus value.
Do I believe the Cardinals should hold off on trading him until they have that sum? Not at all. I’m not making that claim. Carlson’s market may be undervalued by me, but if he were traded, it seems like it would be for really little money. Even if he doesn’t seem like a centerfielder to me, he won’t make you seem foolish in public.
*I’ll defend my take. Carlson has been a negative defender in the corners and as far as I know, there’s no such thing as a player who is better in center than the corners. He’s probably not actually negative in the corners, but the flipside is he’s probably not a positive fielder in center. Also, he’s very slow for a centerfielder. His best attribute is his sure hands, but every time I see him make a great play, I notice how long it took him to get there. Just my two cents.
Does Carlson appear to be a fourth outfielder in the Cardinals’ current lineup? Yes. Who cares, though? He is getting paid $1.8 million by the Cardinals. The argument that argues in favor of trading him is that he is being wasted sitting on the bench. I will note that even though a fourth outfielder carries some danger of injury, he will receive roughly 400 PAs in a season and serves as injury insurance.
Additionally, the primary justification for dealing a player who ought to be a starter rather than a reserve is the desire to maximize value. Considering how often they are blocked, a player’s trade worth is greater than what he could actually provide you on the field. However, if the player’s trade worth is comparable to his current role—which I believe it is—then this argument falls flat.
Furthermore, Tyler O’Neill could not truly be the fourth outfielder because the Cardinals seem intent on selling him. Even so, I think it would be better to start him at third base in the outfield or as the fourth outfielder and see if something connects. Perhaps he achieves a higher level, or perhaps he goes back to what he did in his first two complete seasons. To be honest, both circumstances ought to produce superior trade value.
But it comes at such a low cost. If you have high hopes for Victor Scott II, there’s no reason to pencil him in for only one plate appearance this year until he really pushes his way in. He is more experienced than Alec Burleson and unquestionably a superior defender. He was hardly given any opportunity to play last season, and at 25, I believe that his potential value to the Cardinals is greater on the team than any compensation he may receive in a trade.
The amusing part about my reasoning is that I don’t think the Cardinals would regret trading Carlson. I’m not sure he has a lot of potential, if I’m being honest, even if the Cardinals get something close to fair value. Furthermore, I’m not sure whether you should ever truly regret dealing a player with 2-3 WAR. It is more difficult to assume that they will be able to obtain him close to fair value, though, given all of this.
When the Cardinals locked up their starting lineup before the Winter Meetings, I stated at the outset of the offseason that I wouldn’t move Carlson unless he helped bring back a starter. That statement still stands today and became far less likely. Thus, I believe the Cardinals ought to keep him around for a minimum of another season. For what are we overlooking? A stand-in? The roughly 400 PAs Carlson could accept must be worth more to the Cards than that. I don’t think you’re getting a great reliever for Carlson.
Furthermore, if they so want, they may always swap him later. Once a trade is made, it cannot be undone.
Related Posts
About The Author
