Braves pitching prospects, pushing for elevations

| April 29, 2024 | Other Clubs | No Comments

During the first month of the minor league season, the Atlanta Braves’ prospects have turned in some excellent performances.

The Atlanta Braves’ farm system is mainly focused on pitching.

It is deliberate on the side of the club; the Braves have invested more of their MLB Draft bonus money in pitching prospects than any other franchise in baseball, at more than 60%. For the second consecutive year, four of Atlanta’s first five picks were pitchers.

And several of those pitchers have excelled so far in the 2024 season.

AA Mississippi

Hurston Waldrep, one of Atlanta’s best pitching prospects, began his career in AA Mississippi rather than AAA Gwinnett, which was an unexpected decision, but it has not prevented him from prospering. The righthander from the University of Florida had a rough first two appearances, allowing 10 runs in his first seven innings, but after some time to adjust, his following two starts have been far more successful.

Waldrep has pitched six full innings in the last two games, allowing one run each against Birmingham (Chicago White Sox affiliate) and Montgomery (Tampa Bay Rays affiliate), while striking out 10. He walked five batters in two games, four of which came last Friday at Montgomery’s Riverwalk Stadium, but only allowed two extra-base hits.

Waldrep’s control was always going to be a worry – his college walk rate was 4.2 BB/9, and he’s now at 4.8 BB/9 through his first twelve professional starts. But against Birmingham, he threw 67% strikes and appeared dominant.

And now that Atlanta’s promoted Bryce Elder to the major league level and look prepared to leave him there for a while, a spot should open up in Gwinnett soon if the Braves want to get Waldrep into the highest level of the minors (and give us a chance to get Statcast data on him.)

High-A Rome

The Emperors’ rotation may be one of the more stacked ones in the entire South Atlantic League. The duo of Spencer Schwellenbach and Owen Murphy have excelled so far in 2024, combining for only eight earned runs in 46.1 innings while striking out 58 and walking just ten.

For Schwellenbach, Atlanta’s Futures Game representative from last season, his offseason growth has manifested in an increase in strikeouts. Getting his control back before his swing-and-miss stuff after Tommy John surgery sidelined him until the 2023 season, he’s gone from 7.6 K/9 last season to 8.5 while also reducing his walks (2.2 to 1.6). His four-game ERa in High-A (2.01 ERA) almost mirrors what he did at the end of last season with the Emperors, when he had a 1.98 in three starts (totaling 13.2 innings).

The most impressive thing for me so far in my limited looks has been his comfort in facing a lefty-heavy lineup. His changeup (mid-80s) and cutter/slider (mid-to-upper-80s) have complimented the fastball (93-95, T97) well and he’s able to manipulate the size and shape of the breaking ball as needed, an underrated trait. When he’s on, he’s good, and his command and execution are around more often than they’re not, an improvement in consistency over last season.

For Murphy, it was already an impressive three-game statline but he took it to the next level in his last start, coming against Winston-Salem (White Sox affiliate): seven innings of one-hit ball, striking out ten with no runs or walks allowed. It lowered his 2024 ERA down to 1.13 with a career-high 13.9 K/9 through his first 24 innings (37 strikeouts).

Murphy’s fastball still sits in the low-90s, but his combination of a low release point (only 5.5 feet off the ground) and Vertical Approach Angle gives him an incredible twenty inches of induced vertical break, an excellent number that results in a lot of swings and misses when he elevates it. (Think Chicago Cubs free agency signee Shota Imanaga or Houston Astros pitcher Christian Javier). He has improved his arsenal to take advantage of the outlier IVB. His gyro slider and curveball work north-south and land in the zone (~65%), resulting in both strikes and whiffs on the three pitches.

Single-A Augusta

While Cade Kuehler is adjusting nicely to professional baseball (2.25 ERA after three starts), Dider Fuentes (2.77 ERA) and Riley Frey (2.20 ERA) have had encouraging starts, I’m here to talk about Garrett Baumann.

Baumann, Atlanta’s fourth-round pick from Oveido High School in Florida last year (the same as Vaughn Grissom), had four starts and allowed only three earned runs while striking out eighteen in 21.2 innings. Standing at 6’8 and 245 pounds, he threw in the mid 90s last season and has since improved slightly, reaching 96 on the heater.

There’s some biomechanical work to be done here, and it appears Atlanta is working on it. Despite his stature, Baumann throws from a low slot with what appeared to be a sinker rather than a four-seam fastball, but he did a better job elevating the pitch and using it at the top of the zone in his recent starts. The changeup remains ahead of the breaking ball, but it’s a solid three-pitch mix, and adding velocity to the slider to differentiate it from the changeup will assist the profile.

Despite the title of the article, I don’t believe Baumann should be promoted anytime soon – as a prep draftee in his first year of professional ball, leaving him in Single-A for the majority of the season is the best option here – though a late-season move to Rome after the complex league (which begins today) concludes wouldn’t be out of the question.

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