Braves Minor League Recap: Braves In Trouble As…

Baldwin had a tremendous day with three hit balls that above 100 mph.

There was enough to enjoy for the Gwinnett Stripers, as the Atlanta Braves’ top two hitting prospects in full-season ball both had big days, with Drake Baldwin flying deep in the ninth inning. Dylan Dodd’s new slider for the year was also impressive, and while his performance has been inconsistent, it appears like he is gradually coming into shape. Of course, the greatest news of the day comes from Rome, where AJ Minter made a comeback appearance and looked good for the Emperors.

(35-39) Gwinnett Stripers 9, (32-41) Charlotte Knights 2

Box Score

Statcast

• Nacho Alvarez, SS: 2-4, 2B, BB, RBI, .364/.417/.659
• Drake Baldwin, DH: 3-4, HR, BB, 4 RBI, .325/.426/.550
• Luke Waddell, 2B: 3-3, BB, .227/.313/.318
• Dylan Dodd, SP: 5 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 4.80 ERA
• Matt Carasiti, RP: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 3.00 ERA

After a couple of subpar outings from Drake Baldwin and Nacho Alvarez, the tandem returned to spearhead the Stripers offense on Saturday, with Baldwin once again demonstrating his ability to consistently smash the ball hard. It didn’t matter what the Knights’ pitchers threw at Baldwin this game; he was focused and hit everything well. Two batsmen in particular stand out. Baldwin faced Prelander Berroa, a hard-throwing pitcher, in the seventh inning. Baldwin did not blink, and on Berroa’s hardest pitch of the game, he sent his 99.3 mph fastball back up the middle for a base hit.

Then there was his ninth inning home run. Baldwin battled deep into the count, and got a slider pitch on the inner that he could turn on and smacked it for a three-run home run that put the game out of reach. Baldwin has had much of his success on pitches on the inning half of the plate, and has shown an ability to not get beat in that spot by secondary pitches.

Then there’s Nacho Alvarez, who struck out twice, both times looking at sliders. He was fed a constant diet of breaking balls throughout the game, and in his first at-bat, a well-placed slider on the outside edge rang him up. In the next at-bat, the same pitcher tried an outer half slider to Alvarez, who was sitting on the pitch and gapped one to right center field for a double. Alvarez has demonstrated that there are few ways to consistently beat him, making quality contact in just this series against virtually each pitch mix and approach the Knights have used.

It doesn’t seem that he’s uncomfortable at all with the transition to Triple-A.

Dylan Dodd had an unusual outing, as he was in total control of the game until a third-inning home run on a middle-middle fastball. The Braves are still limiting his pitches, holding him to 71 this game, but he maintained his fastball velocity, which averaged 93.8 mph. He also struck out six times with his fastball, although none of this is very noteworthy. Dodd has been working with a new slider/sweeper, and usage has slowly increased over the last several starts.

Dodd’s slider averaged 1993 rpm in the major leagues last season, but this new pitch averaged over 2400 rpm this start and over 2500 in his prior outing, and in limited use has earned 5 whiffs on 12 swings this month. He threw the ball harder this time than he has in the past, only 10-11 mph below his fastball velocity. Dodd’s feel for pitch location is still in its early stages, but the movement is nasty, and this is an encouraging development for a player whose main concern has been a lack of a strikeout pitch.

Especially as a reliever — where in his one appearance he averaged 95.3 mph on his fastball — this gives him a pitch that if he can develop the location on could make him a serious threat to get back to Atlanta this season.

Swing and Misses

Dylan Dodd – 13

(30-37) Mississippi Braves 4, (40-27) Tennessee Smokies 5

Box Score

• Cody Milligan, CF: 0-5, .219/.279/.319
• Javier Valdes, DH: 1-3, BB, .214/.279/.375
• Tyler Tolve, C: 1-3, HR, 2 RBI, .184/.243/.321
• David Fletcher, SP: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 3.86 ERA
• Rolddy Munoz, RP: 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 6.75 ERA

The M-Braves had a poor bullpen day, which wrecked David Fletcher’s promising start. Fletcher hasn’t been particularly effective in Double-A, walking a lot of guys, but hitters at this level haven’t quite figured out the novelty of his knuckleball, and as a result, contact quality has been low. In terms of innings coverage, Fletcher provides Mississippi with numerous alternatives, and he performed admirably today, allowing only two runs.

Then came the bullpen, where Rolddy Munoz’s inability to locate anything lately has really been his downfall. Munoz has 23 strikeouts in 14 2⁄3 innings at Double-A, but he is just spraying his pitches across the zone and has allowed both walks and far too many hittable fastballs/sliders.

It’s been a tough season for Mississippi offensively, even when they have had prospects in action, and the current iteration of this lineup is largely barren. It’s been nice to see Javier Valdes get more playing time, and he has three home runs in his last six games. Valdes is a guy I’m surprised hasn’t gotten more time, while he is limited defensively he has done nothing but hit since getting to Double-A. This is spread across now three seasons, with a lot of time on the bench this year and some injury troubles in 2023, but in 113 Double-A games he has a 112 wRC+, 19.5% strikeout rate, 14.4% walk rate, and 13 home runs. In a lineup that is really bereft of players who project to major league projections it’s confusing to see someone who has hit so well throughout his professional career be cast into such a limited role. That said with Baldwin in Gwinnett there is more of an opening for Valdes to get time, and since then Valdes has played six games and has a 280 wRC+.

Swing and Misses

David Fletcher – 4

Rolddy Munoz – 3

(37-29) Rome Emperors 3, (27-41) Greenville Drive 5

Box Score

• Kevin Kilpatrick Jr., CF: 1-4, BB, .256/.314/.372
• EJ Exposito, SS: 2-4, 2B, .291/.350/.531
• Sabin Ceballos, 3B: 1-3, HR, 2 RBI, .268/.358/.371
• AJ Minter, SP: 1 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 0.00 ERA
• Riley Frey, RP: 6 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 2.00 ERA

AJ Minter looked sharp in his inning of work, showcasing all of his pitches and locating well, and it’s no surprise to say he was overwhelming to High-A hitters. The only reason he even allowed a run was a ground ball that snuck by Sabin Ceballos turning into a hit and then EJ Exposito sailing a routine throw to first base that couldn’t have been reached from a helicopter. Then the ball went to Riley Frey, a guy we haven’t talked about much that has been good all year. Frey’s velocity backed up a bit after the draft and his whiff rates since his promotion to High-A have plummeted, but he provides a real challenge and could have some major league relief potential. Frey’s changeup/slider combination is solid, but what makes him intriguing is the low arm slot he utilizes and with his already shorter frame and solid extension he creates a flat approach angle and a release point that is devastating to lefties. Left handed batters have a .379 OPS against Frey this season, and while he needs something to handle right handed batters to make him an MLB quality arm, his funky delivery and an uptick in velocity in short appearances does make him at the very least a fringe caliber prospect.

Bit of a weird situation with Sabin Ceballos this game. First off he hit an early home run and it was probably the best swing we’ve gotten from him this season. Ceballos got an inside fastball and turned on the ball, really opening up and driving it to left field for a home run. Ceballos has disappointed with his power production this season, but on occasion flashes that easy raw power that shows you why a team would be giving him a chance to develop. The weird came in the fifth inning, when after a line out Ceballos being from what I can tell jawing with someone on the other team, leading a handful of players from the Drive to leave the dugout and for Ceballos to be tossed from the game. It’s hard to tell exactly what happened, but both sides were given warnings.

This Ceballos home run was much of the offense that we got in the game, though we got some more good-looking swings from EJ Exposito. First was a fourth inning double into the gap, a low fly ball that kicked off of the base of the wall and would lead to a run in the inning. In the sixth inning he just missed a home run, hitting a ball that looked like it would carry out off of the bat but was a bit too up in the air and got knocked down at the base of the wall for a fly out.

Swing and Misses

Riley Frey – 11

AJ Minter – 7

(27-40) Augusta GreenJackets 5, (36-32) Salem Red Sox 6

Box Score

• Isaiah Drake, CF: 2-5, .164/.232/.279
• Will Verdung, 1B: 2-4, 2B, BB, RBI, .234/.366/.291
• Garrett Baumann, SP: 5 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 3.20 ERA
• Adam Shoemaker, RP: 3 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 4 BB, 6 K, 5.68 ERA

Garrett Baumann hit a stretch of rough pitching this month and started to see his numbers regress a bit, but he came out Saturday and had a fantastic evening which was ultimately spoiled by an error in Baumann’s final inning. Baumann needed only 76 pitches to get through his five innings, as he pounded the bottom of the zone with his sinker and forced eight ground ball outs. Baumann also recorded six strikeouts — the first time in his career he’s had that many strikeouts and one or fewer walks. I’m still in the same spot on Baumann, as you can’t discount a 19 year old with the toolset he has. Great strike thrower, decent velocity, and a changeup that projects easily to be a major league quality offering. Not many teenagers have that, but the slider is still holding him back and until he develops a breaking ball he probably won’t have dominant whiff rates like someone like his replacement in today’s game.

The Red Sox had to face off against the twin towers with 6’8 Baumann followed by 6’6 Adam Shoemaker, and they saw quite different approaches from those two. Adam Shoemaker has bounced between nasty and unplayable due to control issues, and in this game found himself somewhere in the middle of those two end points. Shoemaker’s slider is devastating and he has a 30.4% strikeout rate this season, but once again his ability to find any feel for the zone was his downfall as he issued four walks in this game. Shoemaker is still fairly young and the talent is apparent, but he has a long way to go and doesn’t seem to be getting there very quickly. He is one of those bigger guys that has trouble controlling his body and he may never reach that point or he may be one of those guys that just takes a bit longer into maturity before he has that feel.

The GreenJackets tortured Red Sox catcher Daniel McElveny. Salem has allowed the third most stolen bases in the league this season, and Augusta took advantage and racked up nine stolen bases on nine attempts. It probably would have been more if anyone could actually get on base, but as it was mostly Isaiah Drake and Will Verdung did the damage with each coming away with three swipes. Drake has done so well to quiet his lower body in his swing and stay on line to the ball, adding another two hits in this game. A bit more turn and pull from him would unlock more of his power, but right now I find it hard to complain about a guy going from where he was to now having struck out only six times in his past 42 plate appearances since the start of the Lynchburg series. It’s a mind-blowing and sudden turnaround for one of the most talented players in the system, and a reminder to exercise patience with players who are struggling.

Swing and Misses

Adam Shoemaker – 11

Garrett Baumann – 9

(8-25) FCL Braves 6, (22-12) FCL Rays 7

Box Score

• Luis Guanipa, CF: 2-4, BB, .375/.423/.542
• John Gil, SS: 2-3, HR, 2 BB, 5 RBI, .254/.338/.352
• Junior Garcia, DH: 1-4, BB, RBI, .292/.396/.461
• David Rodriguez, SP: 3.1 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 9.49 ERA
• Isaac Gallegos, RP: 1.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 3 K, 0.00 ERA

Luis Guanipa continues to hit, and while the Braves are still taking his return from his hamstring injury slowly it seems only a matter of time before he’s healthy and forces his way to Augusta. Once again Guanipa was the spark plug for this offense, reaching base three times and bringing his OPS up to .965. Then there is John Gil, who had a hiccup in a few games immediately after FCL squad sat for so long due to rain outs, but has otherwise been amazing and sits with a strikeout rate below 20%. Gil has a powerful swing that produces a ton of leverage and momentum, and while I have some concerns his bat path will cause him issues both up and on the inner half, this is a guy who has both the raw strength to hit for power and a swing that is geared to get to that power consistently. Really an intriguing player and one to look for as a guy who could clip into our top 30 midseason.

(4-9) DSL Braves 2, (9-6) DSL Arizona Red 6

Box Score

• Carlos Monteverde: 0-2, 2 BB, .282/.420/.385
• Juan Mateo, 2B: 0-5, .245/.362/.306
• Jose Pineda, SP: 3 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 2 K, 4.50 ERA

It was an unimpressive day in the DSL with Juan Mateo going hitless, and most of the offensive production came from older players repeating the level. Michael Baez is a 19 year old catcher who went 2-4 in this game, and while he only has 42 career DSL plate appearances he has managed an impressive .960 OPS in those 13 games.