An Undervalued Point in Favor of Playoff Growth

Kirby Smart, after eight years as head coach of the Georgia Bulldogs and another 12 as an SEC assistant, has earned the right to comment on league business.

Before our very eyes, he went from being a young, hotshot assistant to one of the league’s senior statesmen.

And, perhaps I’m seeing things through red and black lenses, but I’ve always valued his careful, measured perspectives on conference topics. Whether it’s the recruiting cycle, realignment concerns, or scheduling, Smart avoids getting too far ahead of himself. He doesn’t just go off at the mouth for no reason. But when he does tell you how he thinks about an issue, you can tell he’s been thinking about it for a long time before he opens his mouth.

Such has been the case during this year of transition in college football. Smart was asked earlier this summer at the SEC Meetings if the league should continue to play an eight-game conference schedule or expand to nine SEC games. Ever the diplomat, Smart stated that he supports whatever approach gets the most SEC teams into the newly expanded college football playoff.

That is, perhaps, a rather bland reaction. It’s like stating you want to buy the automobile with the greatest amenities for the least money, or you want to invest in “whatever brings the best return.” However, I believe that the Top ‘Dawg means that we’ll find out over time (most likely in 2024 and 2025) whether aggressive scheduling is worth the work and risk. If so, the league will most likely play nine conference games and lose a directional school contest. That position isn’t really four-dimensional chess.

But what really sparked my curiosity was what he said in answer to the scheduling issue:

“I coached in the NFL for a year and I watched the NFL every year. At the end of the year, a 9-7 year is playoff-worthy. I’m not saying that is where we are headed where 9-7 teams are in the playoff, but we’re headed in a direction where you don’t have to worry about losing your entire roster when you lose one game or two games because they think it’s over.”

I don’t think fans consider how many October/November college football games are impacted by one team knowing that their season will not conclude in the postseason, or at least not the postseason they hoped for. Going forward, the matchup between 6-3 Mississippi State and 8-2 Tennessee will be far more important for both teams than in the past. Under the right conditions, the game is no longer about impressing the Music City Bowl committee. It’s about securing a playoff seed between #10 and #12.

For teams at the top of the heap (Georgia, for example), this means that teams that had previously had a reason to pull off an upset now understand that it means more than just prime time on SportsCenter. It might be the difference between making the playoffs and missing out. I’d expect fewer players to sit out to protect their draft stock on teams in the Power 5’s soft middle, ranging from #12 to #30. There will most certainly be some gamesmanship involved in impressing voters with extra style points. After all, a 34-10 loss to a top five team and a 31-24 loss have different resume implications. The people who choose and seed teams will have to evaluate how significant that difference is.

If it means a handful of more intriguing games for us fans on a freezing November night, I’m all in. Until later.

Go ‘Dawgs!!!