AFC South Projection 2024: What Every Team Must Do This Offseason

The Texans, Colts, Jaguars, and Titans should prioritize upgrading their secondary, tagging Michael Pittman Jr., freeing up contract space, and releasing Derrick Henry.

The AFC South was wild in 2023.

Going into the season, almost everyone expected the Jacksonville Jaguars to dominate the division, with the other three teams competing for second place.

Instead, the Jaguars jumped out to a big lead before crumbling due to injuries and a terrible secondary, while the Houston Texans rallied to win the division behind C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans. Furthermore, the Indianapolis Colts were one win away from making the playoffs, despite finishing above.500.

So, what way should each of these teams pursue this offseason? We assess each situation.

One change they should make: upgrade the secondary.

The Texans, like the Colts and Titans, have more than $57 million in projected cap space. Given Houston’s recent surprise AFC South triumph and playoff success, one would expect general manager Nick Caserio to be aggressive in free agency.

Houston has solid weapons and would be wise to keep tight end Dalton Schultz, but the primary priority should be defense. The Texans must first re-sign edge rusher Jonathan Greenard, who recorded 12.5 sacks over three uneven seasons under DeMeco Ryans’ supervision.

Then, Houston must find backup in the secondary to complement cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. and safety Jalen Pitre. Looking at the market, Caserio may make a strong move for safeties Antoine Winfield Jr., Geno Stone, and Kyle Dugger, as well as corners L’Jarius Sneed, Chidobe Awuzie, and Kendall Fuller. Regardless, Houston’s back end needs to be upgraded before moving forward.

One thing they should do is use the franchise tag on Michael Pittman Jr.

The Colts enter the offseason with $58.9 million in expected cap space, the fifth-highest in the NFL. It’s about time Chris Ballard used it.

The Indianapolis general manager has been somewhat conservative in free agency, but he needs to make changes after witnessing first-year coach Shane Steichen almost make the playoffs despite Anthony Richardson playing four games.
While such actions should involve signing a receiver, tight end, edge rusher, and cornerback, the Colts must first tag or extend Pittman. Despite poor quarterback performance, the USC product has been superb during his first season, surpassing 1,000 yards twice. If Richardson proves to be the answer, Pittman’s stock should skyrocket in the following seasons.

For years, Indianapolis has been devoid of targets other than Pittman. If the Colts can keep him and acquire another option to complement second-year player Josh Downs, Richardson will have an abundance of skill-position talent.

Jacksonville Jaguars

One thing they should do is fix their salary cap.

For what feels like a decade, the Jaguars have spent a lot of money in free agency, only to end up with inflated salaries and deteriorating players a few seasons later.

This offseason, general manager Trent Baalke must address his cap problem by moving on from left tackle Cam Robinson and cornerback Darious Williams. These two moves would save Jacksonville $28.2 million while increasing its potential cap space from $11.2 million to $39.4 million, allowing Baalke to go lean and locate some value deals.

Most significantly, this frees up cap money to tag Josh Allen, if necessary, or sign him to an extension. After falling apart in the AFC South last season and missing the playoffs, Baalke should focus on improving his defense. That cannot happen without first signing Allen on a long-term contract after he recorded 17.5 sacks and 33 quarterback hits in 2023.

Tennessee Titans