Edge rusher Danielle Hunter will not be easy to extend for the Minnesota Vikings, and he is not the only one.
Hunter poses a challenge to the Vikings because he was excellent in 2023, cannot be franchise-tagged in the upcoming offseason, and will likely be too costly entering his age-30 season for Minnesota to support a new deal.
In contrast, DJ Wonnum should be reasonably priced in free agency, but his potential earnings elsewhere in the league may outweigh his value.
In a mailbag post on Monday, December 4, Alec Lewis of The Athletic responded to a query regarding the Vikings’ “appetite” to bring back Wonnum on an extension. In essence, Lewis’ response was that a closer look at the outside linebacker’s statistics doesn’t look good for his chances of returning to Minneapolis.
Fifty-one defenders have rushed the passer on 300 snaps this season. Wonnum ranks 43rd out of those 51 in terms of pressure rate, according to Tru Media. His year-over-year pressure rate has also declined. In 2022, he pressured the quarterback on 9.9 percent of his snaps. This year, that number has dropped to 8.9 percent. His win rate is also down from 8.2 percent in 2022 to 6.7 percent.
So, why does it feel like he has leaped forward? It’s likely a byproduct of splash plays. Last year, Wonnum recorded four sacks. This season, he already has six.
As for an extension, the Vikings are well aware of their looming hole at edge rusher. Both Danielle Hunter and Wonnum are set to become free agents. The Vikings appreciate Wonnum’s commitment and work ethic, but his overall production still leaves a lot to be desired.
DJ Wonnum’s Contract Demands May Exceed His Value to Vikings
Wonnum’s season has increased his value in the conventional sense, albeit possibly not in the ways that analytics stat-head and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has been especially grateful for.
Wonnum is in the last year of a four-year, $4 million contract after being selected by the Vikings in the fourth round of the 2020 draft. Wonnum, who will have a 2023 salary cap below $3 million, is a valuable addition to the team as he has replaced Marcus Davenport as their second starting outside linebacker behind Hunter.
Having spent most of the season sidelined due to injury, Davenport signed a one-year, $13 million contract to join Minnesota in the spring. However, he has only appeared in four games this season. Because of this, Wonnum has started 11 of the 12 games in which he has played and is on track to record a career high in sacks and quarterback hits. Also, he is headed for the second-highest number of quarterback pressures in his NFL career.
Due to his success, Wonnum’s 2023 valuation has been set by Over The Cap at $8.2 million, which is more than eight times the average yearly salary on his current contract and nearly three times his cap hit for this season. His enormous current value is the result.
However, Lewis noted that since the previous season, Wonnum’s play-in and play-out production has actually decreased. For a 26-year-old who is presumably still in his prime, that might just be a slight regression. Alternatively, it could mean that Wonnum is peaking now and won’t be worth the kind of money his valuation suggests he should earn on his next deal.
Vikings May Face Complete Overhaul at Edge-Rusher in 2024
The core of the Vikings’ pass rush this season consists of Hunter, Davenport, and Wonnum; all three could be gone by March.
Any club would find it challenging to deal with that level of turnover at a premium position, much less one that, under coordinator Brian Flores—who may depart Minnesota in 2024 in order to pursue another opportunity as head coach—blitzes defenses more frequently than any other in the league.
However, paying good players like they are great players won’t get the Vikings where they want to go, and that seems to be the main obstacle to signing Wonnum to a contract extension.
The Vikings might get a better deal by pursuing a top edge-rusher in free agency whose career trajectory is more obviously upward, even if he costs more than Wonnum. The same probably applies to a rookie prospect that Minnesota originally discovered four years ago, somewhere in the middle rounds of the upcoming draft.
