The Braves’ four-game winning streak was interrupted Friday night when Brandon Nimmo hit a two-run walk-off home run off A.J. Minter in the bottom of the ninth for a 4-3 Mets victory.
It was a disappointing finale to an otherwise fantastic series, with excellent performances from the Braves pitching staff. However, the top narrative today is a reasonable one: why the hell does Brian Snitker ever send A.J. Minter out in the ninth inning to close games?
Typically, I do not challenge Snitker’s judgment. He’s correct far more frequently than he’s wrong, and fans fail to recognize that managers can’t afford to manage all 162 games as if it were October. Pierce Johnson is on the injured list, while both Joe Jimenez and closer Raisel Iglesias were ruled out after pitching in the first two games of the series.
A.J. Minter is by far the best reliever the Braves have available. For my money, he’s the best reliever on the entire club, and he ranks among the best left-handed relievers in MLB. With that stated, it’s necessary to confront one harsh reality about Minter: whenever he’s expected to close a game, he becomes into 2020 Tommy Milton for the Braves.
Minter has been required to preserve two one-run games in the last two weeks, and both have ended with a two-run homer exiting the yard. The contrast in his stats this season between pitching the eighth and ninth innings is astounding.
8th inning: 11 appearances, 10.1 innings, 0.87 ERA, .307 OPS against
9th innings: 4 appearances, 1.2 innings, 21.60 ERA, 1.778 OPS against
Of course, the sample size this season is small, but it’s been like way throughout his career. The Braves attempted to make Minter their full-time closer in 2018-2019. He had some initial success, but the experiment failed, and he returned to AAA. Minter did not become the great reliever he is today until 2020, when he was promoted to full-time setup man.
A.J. Minter’s career ERA in the ninth inning is 4.81. In all other instances, his ERA is 3.35 or below. Up until this point, I can’t blame Brian Snitker for going to his greatest reliever while his closer is out, but it’s also time to start placing some weight behind these figures. It’s difficult to rationalize sending him out to finish games when the numbers are so obvious.
