- 26 carries for 145 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 24-15 win over Penn State.
- 28 carries for 94 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 31-24 win over Maryland.
- 22 carries for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 30-24 win over Ohio State.
2. Both Quarterbacks Will Take Care of the Ball
According to our projections, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy will be slightly *more* turnover-prone than he has been this season on average. McCarthy is expected to record 0.6 interceptions. This is slightly over his season average of 0.3. Still, McCarthy’s interception-free performance falls squarely inside the model’s predicted range of outcomes.
That makes sense given that McCarthy has only thrown four interceptions this season, three of which came in one game – a disastrous showing against Bowling Green in which he earned a miserable 14.y quarterback rating, according to ESPN’s assessment. McCarthy has thrown 12 touchdowns and only one interception in the ten games since.
Our interceptions forecast — 0.6 for the game — is the same as Jalen Milroe’s on the Alabama side. Milroe has thrown six interceptions this season, which is one more than McCarthy. But he’s been outstanding in recent weeks, tossing seven touchdowns and no picks in the final three games of the season. This includes a two-touchdown, no-interception performance in Alabama’s 27-24 SEC Championship Game victory against Georgia.
3. The Game Will Have More Scoring Than the Vegas Consensus Expects
While our estimates do not predict an all-out shootout, they do predict a slightly higher-scoring game than the consensus from U.S.-based online sportsbooks.
Our model predicts a total of 46.5 points. While that is not unusual for any club, it is more than a full point higher than any of the sportsbooks in our database.
A game with a point total in the mid-40s or above would be consistent with both teams’ previous performances.
After scoring less than 46 points in each of Michigan’s first four games, the Wolverines went on to score more than 45 points in eight straight games before losing the Big Ten title game 26-0.
Furthermore, even in the lowest-scoring games of the Michigan football team’s season, the Wolverines scored at least 24 points in all 13 games, and at least 30 in 11 of them.
Alabama has been significantly less prolific in terms of scoring, falling short of 30 points in seven of its 13 games. However, the Crimson Tide have still participated in six games with 50 or more total scores, including a 42-28 win over LSU and a 49-21 away demolition of Kentucky in back-to-back games on November 4 and November 11.
4. Michigan Football Kicker James Turner Will Be a Key Player
Even when compared to other championship candidates, the Michigan football team was unique in that the Wolverines participated in very few competitive contests. Michigan outscored its opponents by an average of more than 27 points per game and only lost three games by a single digit.
This meant that kicker James Turner saw very little meaningful action. And, because the Alabama game is expected to be significantly tighter than most of Michigan’s games this season, the Heavy model predicts more action for Turner.
Turner is one of the players most likely to have results that deviate from his season-long norms, according to our estimates. We expect him to make 1.6 field goals out of 2.1 attempts.
While 2.1 field goal attempts isn’t a massive quantity by any means, Turner has only attempted more than two field goals twice all season. Those two times happened to be Michigan’s most recent games: a 30-26 victory over archrival Ohio State and a 26-0 thrashing of Iowa in the Big Ten Championship Game. (Turner went 3-for-3 against Ohio State and 4-for-4 against Iowa in his last two games.)
5. Michigan Football Will Win By More Than a Field Goal
Our algorithm is more positive on Michigan than the majority of major sportsbooks. As of Wednesday evening, our model predicted a 3.5-point win for Michigan. While this isn’t a huge departure from the sportsbook consensus, it’s two whole points more in Michigan’s favor than all seven of the bookmakers in our database.
Here’s a look at how the model compares to those sportsbooks:
| Outlet |
Spread |
Total |
| Heavy* |
Michigan -3.5 |
46.5 |
| BetMGM |
Michigan -1.5 |
44.5 |
| DraftKings |
Michigan -1.5 |
44.5 |
| FanDuel |
Michigan -1.5 |
44.5 |
| ESPNBET |
Michigan -1.5 |
44.5 |
| SugarHouse |
Michigan -1.5 |
45 |
| PointsBet |
Michigan -1.5 |
45 |
| Bet365 |
Michigan -1.5 |
45 |
* The Heavy data point is a projected spread powered by Quarter 4. The other outlets in the table are all sportsbooks.
