Kalani Sitake and the BYU football program face low expectations entering the 2024 season.
Vegas put BYU’s win total at 4.5. BYU was predicted to finish 13th in the Big 12. SP+ gives BYU a 21% chance of playing in a bowl game. You get the idea. Even even of the most optimistic supporters do not have high hopes for BYU in 2024.
On paper, having minimal expectations makes reasonable. Even Kalani Sitake admitted as much during Big 12 media days. “There are a lot of unknowns with us,” Sitake told the assembled media. “What have we done to deserve the benefit of the doubt?” It would be difficult for me to be angry with you because you did not vote for us and are unfamiliar with many of the things we do. But our players and I know what we can accomplish—it’s not about proving you incorrect. You don’t know, but once we go on the field, you’ll know.
BYU dropped its final five games of 2023, finishing 5-7 and missing out on a bowl game for the first time since 2017. It wasn’t just the victories and defeats that were disturbing. BYU failed to run the ball and generate first downs on offense. On defense, stopping the run was a huge challenge after a couple key players were injured, and games like the one against TCU exposed BYU’s secondary.
Then there is the quarterback quandary. BYU has more questions than answers at the most vital position. JUCO transfer Jake Retzlaff, who appears to be the day one starter at this time, had an 0-4 record in 2023. He completed 50 percent of his passes and threw three touchdowns and three interceptions. His legs undoubtedly helped BYU’s struggling run game, but his disastrous mistakes proved too much to overcome.
Even while all of that is true, I feel BYU was two plays away from a completely different 2023 season, one that could have been considered a very successful inaugural Big 12 campaign. Those two plays drastically influenced the course of BYU’s 2023 season, and hence the perception of the BYU football program going into 2024.
Today, we’re taking a look back at those two plays and what they represent for the 2024 season.
Play #1 – The Oklahoma Pick-Six
If ever a BYU football article required a trigger warning, this is it. When you saw the title of this piece, you probably thought of this play first: the pick-six versus Oklahoma.
In November, BYU hosted No. 15 Oklahoma. The Cougars were 5-5, one win shy of bowl eligibility. BYU had overcome a couple costly turnovers earlier in the game and was starting to dominate the Sooners on the ground. Midway through the third quarter of a 17-17 game, BYU traveled 58 yards on three run plays to set up a first-and-goal from the Oklahoma 1-yard line. Oklahoma had no answer for BYU’s huge running back, Aidan Robbins.
Then the unthinkable occurred.
Instead of giving the ball to Aidan Robbins, who weighs 237 pounds, Retzlaff pulled the RPO and attempted to hit Kody Epps on the fast hitch. Billy Bowman Jr., an Oklahoma defensive back, stepped in front of the pass at the goal line and returned it 100 yards for a pick six.
Instead of taking a 24-17 lead, that interception resulted in a 14-point swing, with Oklahoma leading 24-17. That play made the difference in BYU’s 31-24 loss.
Play #2 – Overtime Fumble Against Oklahoma State
On a rainy day in Stillwater, BYU had the ball in double overtime with a chance to win the game and block Oklahoma State from winning the Big 12 championship. Oklahoma State led 40-34, but a missed two-point convert led to a BYU victory.
On the second play of double overtime, Jake Retzlaff hit Isaac Rex across the middle for a short gain. Rex stayed on his feet to gain a few yards before being stripped by Oklahoma State’s Trey Rucker. Rucker recovered the fumble, which finished the game.
Oklahoma State forces a fumble in 2OT and defeats BYU.
The Pokes will head to Dallas to face Texas for the Big 12 Championship! pic.twitter.com/CtzC2Tys0W
— CJ Vogel (@CJVogel_OTF) November 26, 2023
BYU’s offense was on a roll before to the fumble. Jake Retzlaff led a 44-yard drive in 53 seconds, setting up the game-tying field goal. Then, in the first overtime, BYU scored a touchdown after only five plays.
If Isaac Rex’s knee had come down, BYU would have won by a score and a two-point conversion.
Of course, no single play can win a college football game, so BYU would have needed a few more plays to win. However, the gap between two wins and two losses was razor-thin. Now, how different would the atmosphere in the program be if those plays went BYU’s way and the Cougars finished 7-5? A two-game winning run could have replaced a five-game losing streak. A bowl game would have been the reward for a club making the challenging transition to a Power Five conference.
The atmosphere surrounding the program would be substantially different, at least from the outside looking in. Even Vegas, which has no stake in the outcome other than making money, would set the over/under at 4.5 for a team that finished 7-5 in its debut Big 12 season. Probably not.
Those plays totally changed the perception of BYU football going into 2024.
So What?
For the purposes of this essay, assume BYU was a couple of plays away from a 7-5 record, with victories over two of the conference’s top teams in Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.
What if, instead of starting 2024 with a quarterback who went 0-4, BYU had a quarterback that started 2-2 with two top-25 wins? The perception of Retzlaff would be vastly different. What were the blunders made versus Iowa State and West Virginia? Those would count as his first two FBS starts. That evidence of development and improvement will likely increase excitement and anticipation for 2024.
In 2023, BYU showed major faults on both sides of the ball. Even then, they were only a few plays from bowl eligibility. You could argue that even one or two improvements in crucial areas in 2024 would result in more wins than 2023 and propel BYU into the top half of the conference. Trusting the process and comprehending the steps to eventual Big 12 championship contention would be lot simpler.
In truth, the plays did not favor BYU. Instead, the Cougars must face the reality of their five-game losing run. They enter 2024 as a projected bottom feeder in the conference, and based on 2023 outcomes, those expectations are reasonable.
For Kalani Sitake and the BYU football program, however, those final two games demonstrated one thing: BYU is not far from being able to compete with the conference’s elite teams. Becoming more consistent on a weekly basis? There is a lot of work to do there. But can you beat the Big 12 winner on any given Saturday? That is within reach. Sitake agreed during media days.
“I would be a little nervous if we were just completely overwhelelmed from last year,” Sitake expressed. “I know everyone looks at the record, but we had moments when we could compete…how can we do it consistently? That is my role as head coach.”
There is no Georgia or Ohio State in the Big 12. Winning the Big 12 Championship by 2030 is a realistic aim. While reaching the peak of the mountain is conceivable, BYU must make gradual progress each year to get there.
The first step toward Big 12 contention? Overcome expectations in 2024 and return to the bowl game. That would be enough incremental development to get BYU ready for the next stage in 2025. If 2023 taught us anything, BYU’s roster will return to bowl eligibility, but the margin for error could be razor thin.